NAS100 Technical Analysis and Trade Idea (NASDAQ)

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👀 👉 Here's my take on the current NAS100 (NASDAQ) situation:

NASDAQ-100 Technical Outlook

The NASDAQ-100 index is showing signs of weakness on the 4-hour chart, with a notable shift in market structure. We're seeing a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, which typically signals bearish momentum. This could potentially drive prices down to test previous support levels.

Key Levels and Entry Strategy

I'm currently eyeing a short entry, but I'm not jumping in just yet. My strategy is to wait for a clear break of the current structure, followed by a retest of the range lows. This approach allows for a more favourable risk-reward ratio and increases the probability of a successful trade.

Broader Market Context

Seasonal Patterns

Historical data reveals an interesting seasonal trend: bears have often dominated the market from mid-September onwards over the past 5-6 years. This aligns with our current technical outlook and adds weight to the bearish thesis.

Technical Indicators

The MACD is showing a bearish signal on the daily chart, further supporting our downside bias[2]. Additionally, the RSI at 55.95 suggests there's still room for downward movement before we hit oversold territory.

Trade Idea

Given the technical setup and seasonal tendencies, I'm looking to short the NAS100 on a break and retest of the current range lows. Key resistance levels to watch are around 17,511 (50-day moving average) and 17,480 (20-day moving average).

Remember, while this analysis provides a solid foundation, always conduct your own due diligence and adhere to strict risk management principles. The tech sector can be volatile, so position sizing is crucial. 📉✅