Nikkei Bottom formation after 2008 crisis: take-aways BTCUSD

23 thg 9, 2018

Hello all,

I'm trying to analyse several bottom formations of different asset classes in order to find key take-aways that could be useful for the BTCUSD bottom formation.
On my profile page you can find the BTCUSD analysis based on the same principles.

The Japanese Nikkei bottom formation after 2008 financial crisis:
- Top 200 MA: 17 300
- Bottom 200MA: 8 752
- Draw a fibonacci retracement from top to bottom:

Conclusions:
- After heavy selloffs; 115% retrace from 200MA top served as support.
- price levels below 115% got bought up quickly
- Afterwards price was mostly trading in the 85 - 100 - 115 retrace channel from 200MA top
- 200MA touched 100% retrace once.
- Jun2012 - Dec2012 strong consolidation around 100% retrace zone with very low volatility.

Link BTC 2014 Crash:
- parabolic selloffs
- price levels below 115% got bought up quickly

shortcommings:
- Prediction of 200MA trendline
- Empirical analysis

I'm looking forward to your feedback.
Best,
Bavo