Week of July 21 - NDX/YM/RUT/CL/BTC/Real Estate
Cập nhật
The past 2 weeks were what a lot of perma-bulls were citing as "market rotation" - when I honestly think it was nothing more than a short squeeze in small caps and on the Dow.
This weeks post will be a lengthy one as I will cover many different asset classes - as it looks as though the market is setting up for a broad sell of.
The Nasdaq came perfectly down into our decision zone - and now we need to wait to see what the next move is.
From here - I could see NQ going either way - and it would make total sense. There might also be a more mechanical game being played here. If they can hold the NDX steady or bid - then they can dump the rest of the market - and the net carnage on the SPX will be somewhat muted.
The DJI and the Small Cap Russel 2000 - both had some gnarly weekly reversal candles last week. The DJI and RUT both have very similar setups - so I will be covering the DJI,
The Dow now has a really large weekly rejection block formed with that last weekly candle - and it looks like they still want to respect that weekly trendline.
I still maintain that the DOL for the DJI is those yearly lows ~2500 pts lower
Crude Oil rolled contracts to Sept last week - so it morphed the charts a little bit.
From HERE - I want to see oil retrace to 77 - and then pop to take out the Sept Contract highs ~ 84.4
The 10yr continues its march lower - its a slow grind but its doing what we expect.
When you have giant liquid instruments like the bond market or FX - things tend to move slow - but they are somewhat reliable.
Bitcoin has now complete its full retrace on the weekly chart. From HERE - I want to see it drop to take out the June lows.
Real Estate also has a chart similar to the small caps. I think we just saw a massive short squeeze occur - just in time for a broad based sell off across the market.
Everyone and their dog is 100% on board with the David Hunter Melt-Up call , and I can see why. But I think this rally we saw in Small caps was more of a short covering squeeze, rather than a broadening of the market.
Add to the fact that Japan is now openly and directly intervening in Yen markets - this puts massive pressure on the carry-trade.
So here is the setup I am watching for this week;
Until next week - We'll be watching.
This weeks post will be a lengthy one as I will cover many different asset classes - as it looks as though the market is setting up for a broad sell of.
The Nasdaq came perfectly down into our decision zone - and now we need to wait to see what the next move is.
From here - I could see NQ going either way - and it would make total sense. There might also be a more mechanical game being played here. If they can hold the NDX steady or bid - then they can dump the rest of the market - and the net carnage on the SPX will be somewhat muted.
The DJI and the Small Cap Russel 2000 - both had some gnarly weekly reversal candles last week. The DJI and RUT both have very similar setups - so I will be covering the DJI,
The Dow now has a really large weekly rejection block formed with that last weekly candle - and it looks like they still want to respect that weekly trendline.
I still maintain that the DOL for the DJI is those yearly lows ~2500 pts lower
Crude Oil rolled contracts to Sept last week - so it morphed the charts a little bit.
From HERE - I want to see oil retrace to 77 - and then pop to take out the Sept Contract highs ~ 84.4
The 10yr continues its march lower - its a slow grind but its doing what we expect.
When you have giant liquid instruments like the bond market or FX - things tend to move slow - but they are somewhat reliable.
Bitcoin has now complete its full retrace on the weekly chart. From HERE - I want to see it drop to take out the June lows.
Real Estate also has a chart similar to the small caps. I think we just saw a massive short squeeze occur - just in time for a broad based sell off across the market.
Everyone and their dog is 100% on board with the David Hunter Melt-Up call , and I can see why. But I think this rally we saw in Small caps was more of a short covering squeeze, rather than a broadening of the market.
Add to the fact that Japan is now openly and directly intervening in Yen markets - this puts massive pressure on the carry-trade.
So here is the setup I am watching for this week;
- I want to see NQ pick a direction and show me confirmation via h4 structure. Half of me is bullish NDX just as it will be used as a mop to soak up capitol that is getting rinsed out of Small caps and the DJI.
- I Want to see The DJI and RUT continue to sell off
- I want to see Oil drop to 77 and respect it, providing an 8% bounce. IF we simply break down from here (and rightfully so - the global economy is weakening) - then we will see it via the weekly chart market structure shift.
- I want to see YM, Real Estate, Bitcoin, and Small caps start moving lower. I think this is the start of a nice market-wide correction
Until next week - We'll be watching.
Giao dịch đang hoạt động
Oil dipped into the 77 area to let us in on the long side - I wanna see 84 trade then we BIG short. I am looking for NQ to sweep these lows and then moon. This week is a BIG deal for indexes.
Follow us weekly at Baero.biz/blog
Bài đăng liên quan
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và ấn phẩm không có nghĩa là và không cấu thành, tài chính, đầu tư, kinh doanh, hoặc các loại lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị khác được cung cấp hoặc xác nhận bởi TradingView. Đọc thêm trong Điều khoản sử dụng.