ridethepig | NZDJPY Market Commentary 2020.08.15
So much for the round of chart updates...@ridethepig has been taking some time off this summer to prepare for a very busy September onwards.
📌 NZDJPY retrace swing is running out steam at the 69.9x / 70.0x highs. While risk remains in the background despite the political fairy-dust, the urge to park capital in the Yen has been maintained but for how much longer?
A dovish RBNZ has provided us with a freeing move to the 59.5x lows with a clear direction from foreign asset purchases and -ve rates coming.
=> Firstly think of the curious circumstances we are looking at when analysing the global macro outlook. The blockade set via inflation and Yields usually turns out to be a severe recession in all respects:
=> Secondly the momentum is building and confirming the likely sustainability of the NZD outflows and JPY inflows as a double whammy. Positive momentum is coughing after six weeks of chop, this all embracing struggle, is only a means to an end.
Remember the importance to strive for mobility, when your central bank confirms its lust to expand the overdraft and buy anything that moves overseas is always sending the currency in one direction. Also for those particularly interested in the region and given the divergence with positive Aussie macro data overnight, it’s no surprise to see AUDNZD continue the grind higher.
Sooner or later the NZD capitulation will show itself in NZDJPY and the leg towards 59.5x has appeared. Invalidation in the board will come via a sustained breach above 73.3x.
As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
📌 NZDJPY retrace swing is running out steam at the 69.9x / 70.0x highs. While risk remains in the background despite the political fairy-dust, the urge to park capital in the Yen has been maintained but for how much longer?
A dovish RBNZ has provided us with a freeing move to the 59.5x lows with a clear direction from foreign asset purchases and -ve rates coming.
=> Firstly think of the curious circumstances we are looking at when analysing the global macro outlook. The blockade set via inflation and Yields usually turns out to be a severe recession in all respects:
=> Secondly the momentum is building and confirming the likely sustainability of the NZD outflows and JPY inflows as a double whammy. Positive momentum is coughing after six weeks of chop, this all embracing struggle, is only a means to an end.
Remember the importance to strive for mobility, when your central bank confirms its lust to expand the overdraft and buy anything that moves overseas is always sending the currency in one direction. Also for those particularly interested in the region and given the divergence with positive Aussie macro data overnight, it’s no surprise to see AUDNZD continue the grind higher.
Sooner or later the NZD capitulation will show itself in NZDJPY and the leg towards 59.5x has appeared. Invalidation in the board will come via a sustained breach above 73.3x.
As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
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Daily 🗺:
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NZ 2-Year Yields are diverging badly!!
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Same story with 10Y Yields...
