Wave analysis on SET(Thai stock market)

22 thg 3, 2021

As the global economy is expected to recover from COVID-19 pandemic, Thai stock market has also started to gain its strength.

In this post, I am sharing my wave analysis and Elliot count on SET, Stock Exchange of Thailand, starting with monthly chart to grasp the big picture of the market.

Monthly chart
The following chart illustrates major financial crisis during this 20-25 years.
Looking at the post-Lehman crisis period, 5 wave bullish trend seems to have been finished with the 3 corrective waves; ABC as indicated with black wave and it bounced from black trend line.



Weekly chart
Price plunge due to COVID-19 pandemic ended around 970THB, where the market turned the way upward. Now it seems to form the third wave as indicated with purple waves.
Whether Thai stock market really regains its strength like pre-VIX crisis period depends on if the price can exceed lower high of weekly chart(purple dotted line). If going above the line, the market would have a chance to try record high, which is 2018 peak.



Daily chart
Looking at the daily chart, we can see that the first wave of weekly chart consists of 5 bullish wave of daily chart and it looks like the market has been forming a third wave of weekly third wave.
The next challenge would be if the price can go above the resistance line at 1600THB, which is also capped by 200 week SMA(light purple MA).
According to Bangkok Post, foreign investors in SET turned net buyers in Nov 10,2020 which contributed SET price surge. Foreign investors buy is also a key to break the ceiling.