Silver trade - SHORT
Silver has been retracing to 0.786 fib level and selling off to 0.382 fib level. This has been roughly a 10% drop in price. This has happened on the red circles (indicating short) with take profits shown at green circles (@0.382 fib level).
The current cycle we are in has us up at 0.786 fib level again. The take profit is shown at 0.382 fib which is a 15% drop in price. A more conservative TP is shown in orange circle (which corresponds to a 10% drop in price as we have seen with previous 3 retraces). RRR for entry at $24.2 price level with 3.6% risk is 2.9 for orange circle and 4.2 for green circle.
On a macro perspective we have:
1. TA: downtrending parallel channel with price near top of channel.
2. Correlations: Dollar moving down currently and gold moving up while silver is consolidating. Hence silver is in a non-correlating state with both gold and dollar currently. Typically is correlates with gold and is inverse correlation with dollar index. Hence, it should soon pick a direction. With gold moving up we have a conflicting signal suggesting upward move, but gold could also be coming to a resistance point too.
Trade plan:
1. Could wait for gold to hit resistance and head down and silver should follow. Hopefully it follows late.
2. Could enter short now and be okay with getting stopped out long if wrong.
The current cycle we are in has us up at 0.786 fib level again. The take profit is shown at 0.382 fib which is a 15% drop in price. A more conservative TP is shown in orange circle (which corresponds to a 10% drop in price as we have seen with previous 3 retraces). RRR for entry at $24.2 price level with 3.6% risk is 2.9 for orange circle and 4.2 for green circle.
On a macro perspective we have:
1. TA: downtrending parallel channel with price near top of channel.
2. Correlations: Dollar moving down currently and gold moving up while silver is consolidating. Hence silver is in a non-correlating state with both gold and dollar currently. Typically is correlates with gold and is inverse correlation with dollar index. Hence, it should soon pick a direction. With gold moving up we have a conflicting signal suggesting upward move, but gold could also be coming to a resistance point too.
Trade plan:
1. Could wait for gold to hit resistance and head down and silver should follow. Hopefully it follows late.
2. Could enter short now and be okay with getting stopped out long if wrong.
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