SMCI bounce

9 thg 9

SMCI technicals are oversold, so I'm looking for a bullish bounce. If you take a look at it's stochastic value on the 1 day chart, the fast moving line is waiting to cross over the slow moving line. This can point to a bullish reversal in the near future. Also, as far as positioning, SMCI price is sitting at a major support level on the Triangular trend channel ATR indicator. SMCI ATR is 50, so it can move in wide range depending on the day. I know that SMCI has a lot of bad news factored into it's bearish price action lately. So this could be a big risk or big reward trade depending on what the market decides to do going forward here. But it is worth taking a look at the opportunity in my opinion.

4:1 ratio reward : risk trade idea
entry = 390
stop = 360
profit = 530

9/20 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 2,155
Call Volume Total 3,801
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.57
Put Open Interest Total 29,545
Call Open Interest Total 60,080
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.49

10/18 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 1,601
Call Volume Total 1,589
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.01
Put Open Interest Total 25,669
Call Open Interest Total 33,340
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.77

11/15 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 167
Call Volume Total 663
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.25
Put Open Interest Total 15,190
Call Open Interest Total 17,048
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.89

10 thg 9

Ghi chú

4hr Stochastic is rolling over. Might go down to 380

11 thg 9

Ghi chú

13 thg 9

Ghi chú

15 thg 10

Ghi chú

SMCI stochastic indicator double top. Short idea now
short = 47
profit = 37
stop = 50

4 thg 11

Ghi chú

Short from 47 to 27 went beyond all technical analysis. Now that SMCI is 25 my speculation is the risk is to the upside. I wouldn't short it anymore heading into earnings. If anything a hedge trade would make sense.

SMCI options data:
11/15/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 85,989
Call Volume Total 60,449
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.42
Put Open Interest Total 313,788
Call Open Interest Total 372,030
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.84