SP500 Index Forecasted (Timeframe H4)

Salam and Good Day,

This is my personal opinion for educational purposes only.


This is the S&P 500 (SP500) Index in a 4-hour timeframe. Let’s analyze the key components and forecast the possible next move:

Key Observations:
Fibonacci Retracement Levels:

The chart displays key Fibonacci retracement levels from a recent high of around 5,677.69 down to a recent low of 5,108.02.

The price has retraced and is currently sitting between the 50% (5,470.41) and 61.8% (5,555.19) retracement levels. These levels are crucial for determining possible resistance and support points in a trending market.
Trendlines:

An orange uptrend line from earlier in the year was broken in August. This break may have signalled the start of the downtrend visible in recent weeks.

A downward-sloping trendline (gray) is present, marking lower highs, indicating that the broader market might still be in a corrective or consolidation phase.

Current Price: The price is trading around 5,627, just below the 5,650 level, which is near the 61.8% Fibonacci level (5,555.19). This area could act as significant resistance to further upward movement.

MACD Indicator:

The MACD is showing relatively weak momentum, with the histogram bars slightly rising but not strongly indicating a trend reversal yet. This suggests that while a short-term upward movement has occurred, the overall market sentiment might still be in flux.

My Forecast:

Bullish Scenario:
If the price can break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level (5,555) and close above 5,650, we could see further upward movement targeting the recent highs around 5,677.69.
A breakout above this resistance zone may result in a continuation of the uptrend.

Bearish Scenario:
If the price fails to hold above 5,650 and the 61.8% Fibonacci level, rejection may occur, pushing the price lower.

The next support to watch would be around 50% Fibonacci retracement (5,470), followed by stronger support at 38.2% (5,384.88).

A fall below 5,470 could lead to a further decline, testing 5,279.07 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement).

Next level to be closely monitor :
Monitor the 5,555 - 5,650 resistance zone closely. A decisive close above this range with strong volume would confirm bullish strength.
A rejection at current levels could indicate a resumption of the downtrend, potentially leading to a retracement to lower Fibonacci levels.

Thanks
Mustaqim Mazuky
Independent Trader/Investor