Was This The Only Bounce Up?

8 thg 1

Things appear to look good for Cycle C so far, but the top within the next 2 days is crucial to confirm we are in fact in the early stages of Cycle C and Cycle B ended last year on December 28. Looks like Intermediate wave 1 ended last Friday, meaning Intermediate wave 2 could end soon too, if not already completed. The first study is the historical percentage retracements. The pink levels are historical quartiles based on the most specific relational dataset. The light blue levels are slightly broader and the yellow is the broadest dataset. The three red levels are the maximum historical retracements.

The next study is based on specific wave relationships for duration and movement levels. The duration models have strongest agreement on 40 hours (the length of Intermediate 1) and unlikely. Second strongest is a fraction thereof at 20 hours (also unlikely). Third strongest is at 13 hours which would occur on Tuesday, and 27 hours which would occur on Thursday. Fifth agreement is 6 hours which is in progress at this time of writing. The quick upward move, could make 6 hours quite possible, especially with the current retracement bouncing off the 68.49% historical third quartile. The movement levels have strongest agreement with the high at 4758-4759; secondary agreement at 4742-4745; third agreement is a tie at 4750-4751, 4756-4759, 4762-4763, and 4770-4771; fourth is 4788-4789.

Intermediate wave 1 was 40 trading hours long and only dropped around 2.31% off the high. The original Intermediate wave 1 in Primary wave 1 from Cycle wave A back in January 2022 gave up nearly 5% in 29 hours. Intermediate wave 2 has moved quite a bit already which could hint Intermediate wave 4 is more of a slow retracement when we get to that later this month. The quick move up so far is either all of Intermediate wave 2 or just the Minor wave A of Intermediate wave 2. Confirmation will not be available for at least another day, but the next ultimate direction should be done. I will most likely publish an Intermediate wave 3 analysis tomorrow. Intermediate wave 3 will likely see a sharp drop through next Friday depending when it begins. Current plan is market top today around 4765-4771 and about 7 more days of downward movement.

9 thg 1

Ghi chú

Still too early to confirm end of Intermediate wave 2. The upward move on Monday could be Minor wave A, the early low today could be Minor wave B and Minor wave C would likely see a new top (above 4762-4771) later today. If a new top does not occur today and the upward movement reverses below 4730-4740 we are likely in the early stages of Intermediate wave 3 downward.

16 thg 1

Ghi chú

Still awaiting confirmation of location NASDAQ 100 saw wave B break above the prior all-time high, however, it is primed to also begin a wave C down. We could still be a week away from confirming wave C down has begun on the S&P 500. The new break above 4795 to 4802 makes it highly unlikely we had begun Cycle wave C down as originally tracked in this analysis. We most likely have not seen the end of Cycle B. As I compare the current correction to 2000-2009, wave A in that case went from March 2000 to October 2002 and dropped 784.24 points in 4473 hours. That wave B gained from October 2002 to October 2007 and gained 807.50 points in 8814 hours. Wave C was quick and steep when 903.50 points were lost in 2554 hours from October 2007 to March 2009. Wave A:B duration for that event was .5075, which when applied to the current scenario could see the market top as late as April 2024, which is likely way too long. The move is most interesting as that A:B was 0.9715 (Wave B retraced more than 100% of Wave A). Applying that to the current scenario could place the reversal point around 4857.55 which is plausible in the very near term. If wave C follows up in a sharp manner like 2007-2009, it would last around 779 hours with the bottom around 3328.71. This would mean wave C could last around 111 trading days which is around 22 weeks. This still indicates a very sharp selloff at some point this year is probable. Just waiting for the catalyst. Let the wait continue.

19 thg 1

Ghi chú

Today looks more like a wave 3 of wave 3 so we are likely still 10 days from a top