Sand P Double Bottom Soon? Bounce; A = C

13 thg 4, 2020

Tie-in to my EW combo wave idea for DJI. Indexes could move a bit higher off this shallow pullback on 4/13, to the 0.618 Fibo at 2937, as we saw at the 0.382 level; or rollover straight from here.

A = 360 pips = C... ominous IMO. The secondary selloff could terminate at or near first selloff bottom ~2190; or dig a little deeper, or form a higher low, but it is coming IMO.

The WXYXZ recovery pattern after a shock has been present in most crashes.

Significantly, another bounce following this pattern may provoke further Bear Behavior, as the true lows in '29/30 and '08/09 came after the pattern completed.

V-shaped recovery is not likely IMHO. Trade at your own risk; this isn't investment advice.

13 thg 4, 2020

Ghi chú

Struggled back to the 0.50 Fibo after painfully grinding a narrow pennant all day.
IMO the short squeezing is just about over and without it, prices won't be forced much higher. Nigam Arora has a nice blog on this, worth a look:
blog.thearorareport.com/19968-2/

14 thg 4, 2020

Giao dịch đang hoạt động

Entering shorts initial positions in SQQQ, SPXS at 2830+.

Hedged with short calls at otm strikes Apr $17, May $18, Jun $20.

Took a flier on TECS, for $4 it trades like an option now, lol. Won't expire but it decays fast.

Accumulating GE for ~$7 in restructuring; downside looks to be ~$6. Short Jun $8 calls.

15 thg 4, 2020

Giao dịch đang hoạt động

This might be a 4th minor wave in an impulsive move. If so, it's headed higher to 2950. Closed partial position and hedged.

15 thg 4, 2020

Giao dịch được đóng thủ công

Sure starts to 'feel' like it wants to move higher, very likely going to the 0.62 Fibo at 2940 IMO. Sold my inverse ETFs, rolled short calls up and out. There will be more selling later this year but always a tragedy to short too soon.
Not chasing FAANGs either, NFLX hit ATH today, incredible. With everyone staying home, subscribers hit records, usage boomed, lol. The bullishness in tech suggests we get a final melt-up.

16 thg 4, 2020

Ghi chú

IMO it will sell soon, but how much higher can it get before second break?
Fascinating read, timeline for the real sell is June-Aug:
marketwatch.com/story/stocks-will-revisit-their-coronavirus-crash-low-and-heres-when-to-expect-it-2020-04-09?mod=article_inline

16 thg 4, 2020

Ghi chú

I see an H&S in the weekly. I shorted it in QQQ May 210P EOD.

17 thg 4, 2020

Giao dịch đang hoạt động

Holding the shorts. Notice ES1 pumped to the 2850 zone at resistance. Double topping here IMO. Gonna get gap fill and at least profit taking soon.

IMO this may be the blowoff top at end of rally, there's too much economic damage to just V-chart all the way back to ATH IMO.

CV19 vaccine is at least 20 months away, chloroquine was proven ineffective this week as I expected (totally wrong rx mechanism for a virus, it's amtimalarial); Gilead's Remdesivir may relieve severity but is by no means gonna be curative therapy, CV19 is a SARS family virus, this drug had 'some activity' against SARS as well. No magic bullets here I'm afraid. Optimism over these news items is way overdone. Going overbought here; look for oversold soon.

17 thg 4, 2020

Ghi chú

Remdesivir is not statistically more effective than placebo:
marketwatch.com/story/why-an-analyst-bullish-on-gilead-says-antiviral-drug-wont-solve-covid-19-2020-04-17?mod=home-page

17 thg 4, 2020

Đóng lệnh: dừng lỗ

Closed shorts for a push as it looks like we're going to the 0.62 Fibo on SPY.
Expect another EOD short squeeze.
Holding nothing over weekend; GL!

21 thg 4, 2020

Giao dịch đang hoạt động

Shorted Monday and closed that on Tuesday for nice net. We got a double top again.
Rolled into USO today; amazing, May oil contracts traded for $0 today ffs...!

22 thg 4, 2020

Giao dịch đang hoạt động

Added to SQQQ;

l CLOSED USO; this is wayyy too risky IMO, the Russkis and Saudis are manipulating prices and will continue to do so to crush US markets. It is a vicious attack on US trade in an election year. Do not expect oil futurz to pop anytime soon, rival powers are driving prices down for spite.

23 thg 4, 2020

Giao dịch đang hoạt động

Adding to SQQQ, SPXS, gonna get some QQQ puts in here as well; got a pretty clear H&S forming, in the right shoulder now.... rollover imminent IMO, GLTA

25 thg 4, 2020

Đã hủy lệnh

Closed out the shorts on Friday midday, more money is flowing into this nutty market and the rally appears to be gathering for one more push. What appears to be an impulsive move ending 4th wave in progress; if the 5th emerges it will go to 3k.

I charted this rally as an ABC, but 'C' grew longer and looks like a Third of Five now.