SP500 ALL TIME 150 year Elliotte Wave count. IT IS OVER!!!

30 thg 6, 2020

I booked a subscription and paid for a charts count by elliottwave-forecast
their charts do not follow up with the same degree wave over the full length of a chart.

this is my count from top level Super Cycle to lower levels based purely on Elliott Wave theory and rules of the SP500 SPX
elliottwave-forecast does include a lot of other tickers within a count of one object and need to have a count that can be changed each day.
They can not sell a count that is over to clients.

For me: one ticker, one wave count as any indicator without mixing other things in it not related and make it human biased.
and for me each degree wave should be used consistent across the whole time frames.
elliottwave-forecast gave me a count where the Super cycle counted first (many years was 1 super cycle wave) and later the same Super Cycle was used in daily periods. Because they do never show the weekly chart together with the hourly, clients do not notice it.
and they use linear charting so the last movements look huge.

A long time chart that goes from 2.70$ to 3400$ can only be counted on a logarithmic chart and then you see that the March 2020 drop is not even visible to be used as a Super Cycle wave (IV) as elliottwave-forecast did.

For me, all wave counts should be visible in the same time candle stick in the RSI across the whole all time chart, with the 3rd wave ALWAYS THE highest RSI level and a divergency in the 5th wave.
If you use the Super Cycle degree as a yearly candle count, then it should be the same across all years that a chart has data.
If you use a Cycle degree as a monthly candle, then it should be the same across all years that a chart has data.
and so on...

this chart uses the yearly candles for the Super Cycle, but the same RSI divergency shows up in the quarterly candles.

the jan 2000 high in the RSI is 97.1 so close to 100%. = it can never go higher on the yearly, quarterly or monthly candles .

• = for me this is the 100% proof that is the 3rd (III) Super Cycle wave ended jan 2000
  
• and the double top to 2008 was a (w) (x) (y) correction to mark the Super Cycle wave (IV)elliottwave-forecast used the march 2020 drop as (IV)
• and we are now a the end of the 5th super Cycle wave (V) with a lower RSI and divergency compare to (III)
• or that Super Cycle wave (V) has ended also, if you check the lower degree waves. elliottwave-forecast says we just started (V)

this count also reflects with what the FED or ECB or any other well-known economic professors says: we are in a period that happens once every 100 years.

the count is open for discussion if you have something to add based on the pure EW rules .
I would love to explain as elliottwave-forecast that we are in Super Cycle wave (V) and lots more to the upside to come. But can not within the EW rules and RSI.
I also do not sell subscriptions, so have no reason to paint you many more years of bull markets.

Probably we are just started the Super Cycle decline (w) (x) (y) , the lost decade of the stock market or at least the biggest change in history. Maybe the SP500 will not exist any-more as we know it. neither the stock market with all the banks and central banks printing .
a new technology BLOCKCHAIN has emerged and DECENTRALISATION of ENERGY, power, money and data has started. (power back to the people, not in the hands of Governments or big corporations )

Central banks know this and try to safe it by massive printing. But the spirit is out of the lamp and can not be put back.
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Here the Cycle degree since the low of 2009.

this degree is on the monthly candles and again it can be seen the same divergency between the Cycle wave III and the Cycle wave V in the RSI.

30 thg 6, 2020

Ghi chú

the Primary waves are best on the 2 weeks candle stick, then the waves are well visible also on the RSI with again the divergency between wave black ((3)) and ((V))
on tradingview shown as circles

30 thg 6, 2020

Ghi chú

and the intermediate waves blue are best shown on the weekly (7 days) candle sticks
to see the same waves also on the RSI with again the divergency between blue (3) an (5)
as here:

30 thg 6, 2020

Ghi chú

NOT PERFECT FOR ME, help welcome.
I do not want to switch time frame candles for the same wave degree. Need to have consistency across 150 years.


The Primary degree (black circles) ( 2 week time frame) fit a bit scrammed in to the 2019 year.
there is a divergency between black ((3)) and ((5)) also in the RSI but the ((5)) is way to close to the ((3)) for me on the 2 week candles.

Still you see the massive multiyear megaphone in green. that is an ending chart pattern.
And the March drop is way past black ((1)) to belong to that chart pattern.

30 thg 6, 2020

Ghi chú

I am still not 100% convinced that Super Cycle wave blue (V) has ended or we are in the last legs.

the Megaphone could be an expanding or reverse symmetrical triangle all belonging to red Cycle wave 5
and it shows up also in the RSI .
So the subdivision of this triangle is 3 waves black ABC

and then you have the last leg up and bullish chart for the next couple of weeks.
as you can see here:


I think this fits best as it also looks very good on the RSI and the same time frame can be respected and the periods of the black primary waves are the same.

= more printing of the fed to push for an all time high after closing that gap SP500 has at the top fuelled by short squeeze , followed by massive protest on the street that the FED only is for helping the rich billionaires but not main street and a massive crash after completing the megaphone to around 2000.