SPX, risk-on asset rally imminent?

11 thg 3, 2022

Highlighting the potential for an imminent short term rally in SPX, crypto, and other risk-on markets on Sun/Mon or on/before Wed coincident with US Fed announcement. Also, the pervasive negative sentiment, not without reason, is making markets look like a coiled spring.

Great setup for Fri, but investors unlikely to hold large bullish positions over the weekend given geopolitics. Might wait until Fed meeting, but might not given the velocity in today's markets. Crypto has been trading with major indices, so a rally in SPX would very likely drag crypto up with it...on a high beta basis, as always.

-HUGE bullish divergence on SPX daily
-VIX down today in a down market
-Backward-looking death cross about to occur, last one Mar 26, 2020

18 thg 3, 2022

Ghi chú

This stock rally likely tests the 200 sma at 4469, with high likelihood of considerable profit-taking and noise around quadruple witching day on Friday.

Barring even worse developments in Ukraine, the rally could pick up next week, but it is only a matter of time until the negative sentiment returns due to "rumors" of front-loading of the Fed's 7 rate hikes and the next CPI which may top 9%/yr.