SPX Model Trading Plans for TUE. 11/29

29 thg 11, 2022

Fed Pivot, Short Squeeze, or Bull Trap? Day 19

Hello TradingViewers! We are now back in the community, after a long gap, and are looking forward to sharing and learning from one another in the community!

Based on the overnight futures markets' moves by 9:25am on Thursday, 11/10, we published our trading plans that stated: "Our models indicate not chasing this market to the long side, and not staying short either. Hence, we will be sitting out the market today". Our models continued to sit out the markets, monitoring the action from the sidelines, till our last trading plans published on Monday, 11/21/22.

To get the perspective on the effectiveness of our call 19 days back, consider this: the S&P 500 Index closed at 3956.37 that day, and it opened today, Tuesday 11/29/22, at 3964.19 - almost froze from when we jumped to the sidelines on 11/10/22! So, our readers who would have followed our models have effectively avoided NINETEEN days worth of choppiness as of today!

Our models are indicating range-bound trading while the index is between 3975 and 3909 (a tight range of about 1% of the index), with a slight bullish bias while the index is above 3900.

Positional Trading Models:
Our positional models indicate going long on a break above 3950, with a 40-point trailing stop. Models also indicate going short on a break below 3946, with a 36-point trailing stop and a 3912 short exit. Models also indicate instituting a break-even exit once a trade is in profit by 12 points.

Positional Models assume that the models are trading an instrument that trades the futures hours, with the trailing and other stops effective overnight.

Aggressive Intraday Models:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3950 or 3915 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3946 or 3935 with a 10-point trailing stop. 

Models indicate long exits on a break below 3970, and short exits on a break above 3940 or 3920. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:30 am ET or later.

By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).

To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.

NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.