SP500 potentially 45% drop sell - Analysis
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The provided image outlines a long-term technical analysis of the S&P 500 using Elliott Wave Theory:
Wave 1 (2011-2020): A lengthy bullish trend representing the first large-scale wave, which extended for nearly a decade, ending in early 2020.
Wave 2 (Early 2020): A substantial retracement followed, marking wave 2, coinciding with the sharp sell-off due to the COVID-19 pandemic at the start of 2020.
Wave 3 (2020-2022): Thereafter, a strong recovery and extension formed wave 3, reaching new highs in 2022.
Wave 4 (2022-2023): Another retracement took place, defining wave 4, which concluded in 2023.
Wave 5 (2023-2024/2025): The current trend is wave 5, which may peak between 2023 and 2025. This wave is anticipated to reach the target price range of 5,800-6,100 before a significant retracement.
Within this broader structure of wave 5, a smaller set of waves have formed points 1, 2, and 3 over the course of 2023 and 2024. We are currently awaiting the completion of minor wave 4's retracement and the extension of minor wave 5. This would be the fifth wave of the fifth cycle, or "wave 5 of 5."
Following the completion of the minor wave 5, analysts expect a substantial retracement in 2024-2025. Based on Fibonacci extension levels, the SP500 could experience a drop of 40-45%, potentially reaching levels of 3,460 or 3,160.
The extension of the minor wave 5 could fail following the retracement of minor wave 4, potentially precipitating the drop earlier.
For market participants following this analysis, this might suggest an opportunity to take profits near the anticipated peaks and then potentially look for short entry points to capitalize on the forecasted long-term retracement. Of course, such analyses should be approached with caution and coupled with careful risk management and ongoing market developments monitoring.
Target date: 07 may 2024
Wave 1 (2011-2020): A lengthy bullish trend representing the first large-scale wave, which extended for nearly a decade, ending in early 2020.
Wave 2 (Early 2020): A substantial retracement followed, marking wave 2, coinciding with the sharp sell-off due to the COVID-19 pandemic at the start of 2020.
Wave 3 (2020-2022): Thereafter, a strong recovery and extension formed wave 3, reaching new highs in 2022.
Wave 4 (2022-2023): Another retracement took place, defining wave 4, which concluded in 2023.
Wave 5 (2023-2024/2025): The current trend is wave 5, which may peak between 2023 and 2025. This wave is anticipated to reach the target price range of 5,800-6,100 before a significant retracement.
Within this broader structure of wave 5, a smaller set of waves have formed points 1, 2, and 3 over the course of 2023 and 2024. We are currently awaiting the completion of minor wave 4's retracement and the extension of minor wave 5. This would be the fifth wave of the fifth cycle, or "wave 5 of 5."
Following the completion of the minor wave 5, analysts expect a substantial retracement in 2024-2025. Based on Fibonacci extension levels, the SP500 could experience a drop of 40-45%, potentially reaching levels of 3,460 or 3,160.
The extension of the minor wave 5 could fail following the retracement of minor wave 4, potentially precipitating the drop earlier.
For market participants following this analysis, this might suggest an opportunity to take profits near the anticipated peaks and then potentially look for short entry points to capitalize on the forecasted long-term retracement. Of course, such analyses should be approached with caution and coupled with careful risk management and ongoing market developments monitoring.
Target date: 07 may 2024
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