SP500 >= 2007 levels (83 year semi-log detrended)

5 thg 4, 2021

For what it's worth, my 83 year semi-log detrend of the SP500 is currrently >= 2007 peak quarterly averaged levels. (semi-log detrended over the period 1926-2020, SP500 = 10^(0.792392+0.0289587*(year - 1926.25)) A separate plot (not shown here, with time-folding) puts 1929 & 2000 as the high years, well beyond the 1.618 Fib level. Although simple linear regression (semi-log scale) was used, the actual setting of the trend-line is always an interpretation. For 1872-1926 (DJIA as proxy for years SP500 not available, from TradingView) a horizontal line was used. Later I read David Fischer's "The Great Wave" on historical pricing, which contrasts "price revolution" (skyrocketing pricing) with "price equilibria" (slow declines or stable pricing).

But the big question is whether "this time it's different", and that financial asset almost-hyper-inflation will last much longer. At least until consumer and producer inflation get juiced as well, or maybe we could just crash?