SPX: some info from Trump to COVID19
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Hi Guys,
Let's start with "The 2015–16 stock market selloff" also known as The Great Fall of China: (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015–16_stock_market_selloff).
Then, on Nov 8, 2016 Donald Trump was elected President of The United States of America: (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election).
From Nov 2016 to Oct 2018 the U.S. stock market climbed to record peaks on the prospect of tax cuts, corporate deregulation and infrastructure spending:
*Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA): en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Cuts_and_Jobs_Act_of_2017
**Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 (BBA): en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bipartisan_Budget_Act_of_2018
2018 was a year fraught with volatility, characterized by record highs and sharp reversals. At the end of 2018 investors dumped stocks amid concerns of an economic slowdown (due to rising tensions between US and China) and fears the Federal Reserve might make monetary policy mistake prompting a lack of liquidity.
On Dec.24, 2018, in an unusual move aimed at reassuring investors, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin made calls to the heads of the country's six largest banks (1) bbc.com/news/business-46669300
In 2019 SPX rose from 2340 to ATH helped by FED cutting interest rates three times (federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm) + postive outcome of US-China Trade Deal (announced by Trump on Oct.10, 2019 cnbc.com/2019/10/10/stock-futures-open-higher-after-optimistic-trump-comments-on-us-china-trade.html).
In Jan 2020 the SPX index rose to 3400 before global economy was hit by COVID2019.
During this period VIX was above 30 at the end of 2015, at the beginning of 2018 and at the end of 2018. In Feb 2020 VIX is once again above 30 indicating fear due to impact of COVID19.
investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp
To note that on Feb 28 some options traders started betting volatility levels will fall: investing.com/analysis/some-options-traders-are-betting-volatility-levels-will-fall-200511749
Please share your views or comment and if you have any questions please do not hesitate to ask.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
Let's start with "The 2015–16 stock market selloff" also known as The Great Fall of China: (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015–16_stock_market_selloff).
Then, on Nov 8, 2016 Donald Trump was elected President of The United States of America: (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election).
From Nov 2016 to Oct 2018 the U.S. stock market climbed to record peaks on the prospect of tax cuts, corporate deregulation and infrastructure spending:
*Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA): en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Cuts_and_Jobs_Act_of_2017
**Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 (BBA): en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bipartisan_Budget_Act_of_2018
2018 was a year fraught with volatility, characterized by record highs and sharp reversals. At the end of 2018 investors dumped stocks amid concerns of an economic slowdown (due to rising tensions between US and China) and fears the Federal Reserve might make monetary policy mistake prompting a lack of liquidity.
On Dec.24, 2018, in an unusual move aimed at reassuring investors, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin made calls to the heads of the country's six largest banks (1) bbc.com/news/business-46669300
In 2019 SPX rose from 2340 to ATH helped by FED cutting interest rates three times (federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm) + postive outcome of US-China Trade Deal (announced by Trump on Oct.10, 2019 cnbc.com/2019/10/10/stock-futures-open-higher-after-optimistic-trump-comments-on-us-china-trade.html).
In Jan 2020 the SPX index rose to 3400 before global economy was hit by COVID2019.
During this period VIX was above 30 at the end of 2015, at the beginning of 2018 and at the end of 2018. In Feb 2020 VIX is once again above 30 indicating fear due to impact of COVID19.
investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp
To note that on Feb 28 some options traders started betting volatility levels will fall: investing.com/analysis/some-options-traders-are-betting-volatility-levels-will-fall-200511749
Please share your views or comment and if you have any questions please do not hesitate to ask.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
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