Two strong technical factors are giving the S&P500 support to continue up over the long term. Bouncing off the MA200 and a direct hit of the 50% fib retrace means the downside will have a low probability going forward. Of course, macro factors could play a role in changing its course but as it stands I am fairly confident this is a one-way ticket. As mentioned above, we could see a small downside to 3700 -+ before the continuation to the upside. Of course, you should remember this could take some time as we are looking at a monthly chart, but basically, I'm saying limited downside from here and a greater percentage of upside. This would also work with economic timing and the so-called recession people are saying we are heading for, this may be so or maybe not so, but most likely more of a mild recession from an American point of view. (Other countries may not be so lucky.) So all this FUD may end just as the S&P500 wants to go up, and then you are looking at fireworks, and the timing of that is what we must look out for.