According to data published yesterday: → Core CPI: actual = 0.4%, expected = 0.3%, past values = 0.3% → CPI: actual = 0.3%, expected = 0.2%, past values = 0.3%
Thus, the statistics dealt a blow to the hopes of market participants that inflation in the United States is fading and the Fed will lower interest rates. The figures suggest that tight monetary policy will remain tight for longer.
The market reaction was a sharp rise in the price of the US dollar - accordingly, many exchange assets denominated in USD fell in price: → the EUR/USD rate fell by approximately 0.5%, setting a minimum for the year; → the price of E-mini futures for the S&P-500 index decreased by approximately 1.5%; → the price of E-mini futures for the Nasdaq-100 index decreased by approximately 2.0%; → the price of gold XAU/USD decreased by approximately 1.8%; → the price of bitcoins BTC/USD decreased by more than 3%, but this morning the cryptocurrencies have already managed to recover, thus winning back yesterday’s dump.
Also resistant to news about inflation in the United States was the price of oil XBR/USD, which is rising against the backdrop of a tense geopolitical situation.
Although stock index charts show that the bullish trend remains in force. But for how long? According to technical analysis of the S&P-500 index chart: → the price is within the ascending channel (shown in blue); → the price found support near its lower border; → the psychological level of 5000 points may turn out to be resistance if the price tries to recover from the lower border of the channel. Note that around the 5000 mark there is a level of 50% of the decrease in B→C.
The S&P-500 index can be supported by: → lower boundary of the parallel channel; → level 4820, which previously served as resistance, but was powerfully broken by the bulls on January 19; → level 4850, which approximately coincides with the level of the 50% retracement of the A→B impulse.
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