Der breite US Aktienmarkt zeigt derzeit ein Reversalpatten für den langfristigen Trend (Mögliches Doppeltop). Charts zeigen den Kursverlauf, erklären aber nicht die Gründe, warum ein Asset fällt oder steigt. Der Grund für den heutigen Kurseinbruch sind von China angekündigte Strafzölle. Gleichzeitig will China vor der WTO klagen. Donald Trump rudert in den ersten tweets bereits zurück. Die Strategie Chinas ist ähnlich der, die die EU vorbereitet hat. Die Zölle treffen zielen direkt auf die midterm elections im November.
Trump kann sich keine weiteren Stimmverluste mehr leisten:
US-Präsident Donald Trump beschwört einen vernichtenden Handelskrieg mit China herauf. Die neuen Strafzölle sind bisher nur eine Drohung - doch die hat schon jetzt böse Folgen.
Schon jetzt gibt es einen Aufstand der US-Wirtschaft. Zwar beklagen sich die Firmen seit Langem über Chinas unfaire Handelspraktiken. Doch Strafzölle halten nur wenige für eine Lösung - im Gegenteil: Sie könnten ihre zentralen Lieferketten zerstören und damit die globale Konkurrenzfähigkeit.
SPY @ 2.632: Dow rises 100 points, stocks make roaring comeback from morning plunge on trade war fears
China's Ministry of Commerce said the tariffs are designed to target up to $50 billion in U.S. products annually and would hit goods like soybeans and cars. At its session lows, the Dow fell more than 500 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq plunged as much as 1.6 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively. "The emotional tape presents investors with a buying opportunity," notes one analyst.
Stocks make a monster comeback, Dow rallies more than 700 points from lows of the day
China's Ministry of Commerce said the tariffs are designed to target up to $50 billion in U.S. products annually and would hit goods like soybeans and cars. At its session lows, the Dow fell more than 500 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq plunged as much as 1.6 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively. "The emotional tape presents investors with a buying opportunity," notes one analyst. cnbc.com/2018/04/04/us-stock-futures-dow-data-trade-tech-and-politics-in-focus.html
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SPY @ 2.646: "Larry Kudlow Rally"
Larry Kudlow: Trump's tariffs on China may not go into effect
Larry Kudlow says President Trump's proposed tariffs on China may not take effect. The U.S. and China have taken trade actions against each other, escalating tensions between the world's two largest economies. Kudlow calls the stock market reaction to the trade moves "mild." cnbc.com/2018/04/04/larry-kudlow-says-trump-china-tariffs-may-not-take-effect.html
Ghi chú
SPY @ 2.650 um 21.45 Uhr: 1. Kursziel (2.650) erreicht. Nächstes Kursziel ist die Downtrendline bei 2.750. Trade bleibt aktive, SL @ Einstandspreis.
Im eskalierenden Handelsstreit mit China gibt es aus dem Weißen Haus Signale von Verhandlungsbereitschaft. Der oberste Wirtschaftsberater von US-Präsident Donald Trump, Larry Kudlow, sagte auf die Frage, ob die Zölle letztlich gar nicht in Kraft treten könnten: "Ja, das ist möglich. Das gehört zum Prozess." In einer Auseinandersetzung wie dieser würden alle Werkzeuge genutzt.
„Trumps Twitter Indikator“ —> 24h kein Tweet mehr (zu einem vorher hochgekochten Thema) sagt folgendes aus: Trump ändert seine Meinung (für kurze oder längere Zeit).
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SPX @ 2.654: Kurzfristiger Downtrend gebrochen.
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Globale „Larry Kudlow Rallye“
Aktien Frankfurt Schluss: Anleger jubeln über versöhnliche Töne im Handelsstreit FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - Die jüngste Erholung am deutschen Aktienmarkt hat sich am Donnerstag deutlich beschleunigt. Unter den Anlegern sorgten beschwichtigende Äußerungen der US-Regierung im Handelskonflikt mit China für spürbare Erleichterung. Der Dax <DE0008469008> baute seine Gewinne stetig aus und schloss 2,90 Prozent höher bei 12 305,19 Punkten. Der hiesige Leitindex erreichte das höchste Niveau seit rund zwei Wochen und verzeichnete den größten prozentualen Tagesgewinn seit rund einem Jahr.
Warum sich Trump keinen Tradewar mit China leisten kann:
China's $1.2 trillion weapon that could be used in a trade war with the US
China holds $1.17 trillion of U.S. government debt. Economists and investors worry if there is a trade war, China could reduce its U.S. debt holdings as a political weapon against the Trump administration tariffs proposal. If that happens, the dollar could fall and other countries could follow suit and sell their holdings. If China reduces its buying at a time when the U.S. is increasing its supply of new Treasuries into the market, that could lead to a rout in the bond market. cnbc.com/2018/04/05/chinas-1-point-2-trillion-weapon-that-could-be-used-in-a-us-trade-war.html
Warten auf "Larry Kudlow": Bleibt es bei Trumps bisherigen Verhaltenweisen, wird sein Stab wieder versuchen, das Chaos in Ordnung zu bringen. Die angekündigten 100 Mrd. USD Strafzölle werden dann vermutlich wieder relativiert, umargumentiert oder verharmlost.
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SPY @ 2.637: Man gewöhnt sich an Trump. Der Handelsstreit wir, voraussichtlich, vor der WTO landen und dort jahrelang diskutiert werden.
"Markets are deservingly losing patience with the administration's approach to this," he said.„
Hope for an US-China trade agreement just got 'thrown under the bus,' Wall Street veteran Peter Boockvar says "Any hope that this spat with China was going to stay contained with an ultimate agreement at the end of the day just got thrown under the bus," Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group said. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he had told U.S. trade officials to consider $100 billion in additional tariffs against China. cnbc.com/2018/04/05/us-china-trade-agreement-hopes-now-dashed-peter-boockvar.html
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SPY @ 2.648: Trumps Team wird versuchen, das zerschlagene Prozellan wieder zu "kitten". Bis zu den Wahlen im November könnte dies noch funktionieren.
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SPY @ 2.650: Zeit für die "Putzkollone" in 'Trumps Team, die das zerschlagene Porzellan auflesen muss:
Am Wochende werden Trumps Berater viel Zeit und Mühe haben, das Porzellan zu kitten.
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SPY @ 2.636: rump hat keine andere Wahl: Wenn er seine Twitter-Tiraden nicht sofort stoppt, wird er die Midterm Elections verlieren und den Demokraten die Mehrheit im Kongress ermöglichen. Die Demokraten wiederum können dort mit einfacher Mehrheit jederzeit ein Impeachmentverfahren gegen Trump eröffnen.
Trump's tariff gamble with China could be catastrophic for the economy, the GOP — and his own presidency
SPY @ 2.604: DJIA @ 23,9k (-600): Wirtschaftsdaten überzeugen nicht. Trumps verbale Attacken gegen China verunsichern Anleger. Trump muss seine Tonlage ändern oder er verliert am 6. November die Mehrheit im US Kongress. News:
SPY @ 2.604: Trump bringt Unterstützer gegen sich auf:
Conservative Koch brothers network breaks with Trump over brewing trade war with China
The Koch network backed by conservative billionaires Charles and David Koch opposes tariffs. "Our view is we are hopeful the administration will reverse course on these policies because tariffs ultimately hurt more jobs then save and hurt the very people they intend to help," said a spokesman for one of the groups in the network. The Koch groups are worried that tariffs and a trade war with China would offset any potential positive economic gains from the GOP's tax cuts. cnbc.com/2018/04/06/koch-brothers-network-breaks-with-trump-over-china-trade-war.html
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'The dumbest possible way': Heartland Republicans rip President Trump's tariff plans Republicans have already started to criticize President Donald Trump's tariff escalation with China. Beijing has threatened to hurt farming states with proposed tariffs on soybeans and other agricultural products. Some House Republicans in states with major farming presences already face tough re-election bids. cnbc.com/2018/04/06/ben-sasse-
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Trade dominates week ahead and two big events could impact markets
Developments on the trade front trump just about everything else for markets in the week ahead, and stocks could stay under pressure if there are no positive developments. Two big events on the trade front could influence markets in the week ahead, including possible progress on NAFTA and a key speech by Chinese President Xi Jinping. Earnings season kicks off at the end of the week with reports from BlackRock and major banks, JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. There is also important inflation data, with CPI Wednesday. cnbc.com/2018/04/06/trade-dominates-week-ahead-and-two-big-events-could-impact-markets-.html
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Trump kann sich keine weiteren Kursverluste an den Aktienmärkte mehr erlauben - und weiss das anscheinend sehr genau:
FOXNews, Fox & Friends, ist bekanntlich Trumps "Advisor". Dieses Video gibt alle wichtigen Infos:
Reince Priebus talks GOP prospects for 2018 midterms Will a strong economy help Republicans hold on to Congress? Former White House chief of staff Reince Priebus weighs in on 'Fox & Friends.'
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Trumps "Erfolg" bei Kursgewinnen des DJIA: Nur Platz 8 (!):
US farmers in 'precarious position' with China as trade war fears escalate A wide swath of the farm economy could be impacted if China goes ahead with tariffs on soybeans and other lucrative crops. China's list of U.S. goods facing tariffs also includes cotton, corn, wheat and beef. U.S. agricultural exports to China represent almost $20 billion annually for American farmers. China buys roughly half of the U.S. soybean exports, or about $14 billion annually, and is the second-largest buyer of American cotton. cnbc.com/2018/04/07/us-farmers-in-precarious-position-with-china-amid-trade-war-fears.html
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: DAX-AUSBLICK
Die Börsen sind gefangen im Handelsstreit VonMatthias Streit Die USA und China überziehen sich weiterhin gegenseitig mit Strafzöllen. Analysten reagieren mit Zweckoptimismus. Von wegen Erleichterung: Kurz nachdem der Wirtschaftsberater von Donald Trump, Larry Kudlow, einen versöhnlichen Ton im Handelsstreit zwischen den USA und China anstimmte – es könnte am Ende vielleicht gar nicht zu den angedrohten Strafzöllen kommen – legte sein Chef noch einen drauf. Am Donnerstagabend sinnierte US-Präsident Donald Trump, weitere Strafzölle in Höhe von 100 Milliarden Dollar gegen China zu verhängen, und belastete damit die Stimmung an den Börsen am Freitag. app.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/boerse-maerkte/dax-ausblick-die-boersen-sind-gefangen-im-handelsstreit/21149394.html
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GEOPOLITICS:
Trump ändert seine Tonlage: "Best buddy" von Chinas President Xi und harter Kämpfer gegen "Animal Assat" nach den Giftgasangriffen.
"President Xi and I will always be friends, no matter what happens with our dispute on trade. China will take down its Trade Barriers because it is the right thing to do. Taxes will become Reciprocal & a deal will be made on Intellectual Property. Great future for both countries!" twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/982954355509907457
Many dead, including women and children, in mindless CHEMICAL attack in Syria. Area of atrocity is in lockdown and encircled by Syrian Army, making it completely inaccessible to outside world. President Putin, Russia and Iran are responsible for backing Animal Assad. Big price...
....to pay. Open area immediately for medical help and verification. Another humanitarian disaster for no reason whatsoever. SICK!
SPY @ 2.650 Wall Street edges higher as techs gain, trade war worries ebb All three major U.S. indexes rose more than a percent on Monday as gains in technology shares and a softer stance by U.S. policymakers on China trade tariffs powered a rebound in stocks from last week's selloff. Nine of the 11 major S&P sectors were higher and 27 of the 30 Dow components were in the positive territory. Boeing (N:BA) was the biggest boost to the Dow, while gains in Apple shares (O:AAPL) led the S&P 500. The FANG group, comprising four closely watched internet stocks: Facebook Inc (O:FB), Amazon.com Inc (O:AMZN), Netflix Inc (O:NFLX) and Alphabet Inc's Google (O:GOOGL), were up between 1.1 percent and 3.4 percent. investing.com/news/stock-market-news/us-stock-futures-higher-as-uschina-trade-war-fears-ease-1384576
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Tagesgewinne vollständig zu Handelsschluss verloren:
Die weitere Entwicklung hängt an der Politik. Am 10. April äussert sich Chinas Premier Xi zur Handelspolitik. Steigen die Kurse am Dienstag, 10.4.2018, würde sich ein Reversal Pattern bilden.
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Stocks jump as Xi calms jitters over U.S.-China trade row
U.S stock futures rallied, Asian equities bounced and the safe haven yen fell on Tuesday, as Chinese President Xi Jinping promised to lower import tariffs on products including cars, helping soothe investor jitters over an escalating U.S.-China trade row.
Xi, speaking at the Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan province, said that China will take measures to sharply widen market access for foreign investors, raise the foreign ownership limit in the automobile sector and protect intellectual property of foreign firms. Xi's comments prompted a rapid and largely positive reaction in financial markets, which have been rattled over the past week on fears the tit-for-tat U.S.-China tariffs will explode into a full-scale trade war in a blow to global growth. investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stocks-jump-as-xi-calms-jitters-over-uschina-trade-row-1386254
Blick in die News: Donald Trump hat in Europa keine Schlagzeilen mehr.
Letzter Tweet: "Ich, Donald Trump, bin jetzt beliebter als Obama". Das dürfte niemanden mehr freuen als Vladimir Putin und Xi Jinping. Und die Aktienmärkte. de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping
Just hit 50% in the Rasmussen Poll, much higher than President Obama at same point. With all of the phony stories and Fake News, it’s hard to believe! Thank you America, we are doing Great Things. twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/985529299905187840
DAX eröffnet die Woche mit Kursen Richtung 12,6k.
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SPX/SPY @ 2.700: 2. Kursziel in Reichweite. Kursziel wird abgesenkt von 2.750 auf 2.740.
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GEOPOLITICS:
US extends tariff exemptions for European Union and other allies The May 1 deadline for steel and aluminum tariff exemptions for U.S. allies has been extended. Instead, Trump decided to postpone any decision on the European Union, Canada and Mexico for 30 days. cnbc.com/2018/04/30/us-extends-tariff-exemptions-for-eu-and-other-allies.html
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SPY @ 2.740 - Kursziel erreicht, Trade closed.
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(Weitere Updates in o.a. Trading Idea)
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Trade opened @ 2.576 USD Trade closed @ 2.740 USD ————————————— ............ net gain 166 USD
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