CRYPTO BEARISH SCENARIO, SENTIMENT

12 thg 12, 2021

//www.tradingview.com/x/408sk78i/



All analysis and price reference is to weekly Open Close unless indicated otherwise.
Green and White boxes specify a date range of relevance.
There are 5 Down Arrows indicating specific weeks, color coded for ease of reference.
(IF you are color blind; Down Arrows are Green, Yellow, Orange, Red, White chronologically respectively.)





The hypothesis is that the Altcoin Market Cap can serve as a gauge for sentiment
towards Crypto Sector along with BTC and ETH price chart.

Looking towards the green box, after BTC peaked, it took several weeks for ETH
and Altcoins to peak. In fact they peaked only after BTC had a weekly close
lower than its previous weekly low indicated by the Green Down Arrow. At this
point ETH barely corrected and Altcoins were still too bullish to dump they
printed the shortest red candle basically a doji;
Sentiment was highly bullish still.

When BTC closed below its January high (Yellow Down Arrow), only then ETH and
Altcoins fell and although Altcoins printed the largest red candle following ETH,
both of them managed to close higher than their January highs in summer. So, within
the green box market sentiment was following BTC but lagging behind. And during
summer ETH and Altcoins painted a more bullish structure than BTC.
Almost as if BTC price was being manipulated but the sentiment was unaffected as a whole.

When BTC started its August run, Altcoin Market Cap printed a new ATH and ETH retested
its ATH where BTC wasn't even close to reaching it yet. At the Orange Down Arrow only
BTC printed a weekly close that's lower than the previous week and ETH had the largest
red candle. Although altcoins wicked below the May ATH they consistently closed above
their ATH until BTC had a weekly close below the high of Yellow Down Arrow also they
had the smallest red candle of the three unlike what happened in may at the Yellow Down Arrow.
This showed that the sentiment was high enough to pull the market up and trending.

Inside the white box BTC and ETH had started their bull run but market sentiment was barely moving.
3th Candle into the white box BTC had already printed a higher high and it took ETH 5 and
Altcoins 6 weeks to do the same. Also Altcoin market cap broke below its trendline
and was now trending below it finding resistance to close above. When BTC closed below its April ATH,
Altcoin Market Cap did a final Retest of the trendline. We can see that the market sentiment
was having trouble breaking above the trend investors were expecting a larger correction. As
BTC and ETH were rising investors were hesitant to jump into Alts. IF we use Altcoin Market Cap,
sentiment as a leading indicator. Altcoin Market Cap breaking far below the trendline could be
the sentiment that BTC and ETH now face.

As BTC broke below the trend at the White Down Arrow this brought also ETH back down to trend.
This weeks candle is currently breaking below.

As BTC moves, Altcoins move painting a slightly different chart because of the nature
of the underlying assets. Altcoins are viewed as highly speculative high risk high reward
assets so they move more when sentiment is highly bullish. This innate difference
is what we are using to gauge the market sentiment.

IF ETH follows the downwards trend, pressured by sentiment and BTC breaking below trend
then that could in effect print more red candles for Altcoins and breaking below September Low.
This could create a cascading effect dumping all the way down to 30k or perhaps a little lower,
before BTC sees a new macro bullish move.

FIB Levels
If we go up to around 53-57k we could find resistance at 0.5 0.618 fib levels and head right
back down. Printing a large head and shoulders. Which would then cause the prementioned move that
brings us down to 30 k.

I tried to draw a speculation of how BTC may get rejected from these fib levels(RED LINE).
I tried to respect 0.618 0.5 1,272 and 1,618 as well as break and retest points.
Then copied the bar pattern from April Peak and resized it, the patterns also seemed to fit
so I also left that as a faint yellow bar pattern. Nevertheless they are both dubious and
wildly speculative at best.






This scenario is called three peaks and the domed house, however I am not an expert on it, I
do not know if it applies to these assets and conditions. Although combined with market
sentiment and resemblance of chart pattern to BTC it could be the large dump that
investors feared but in a way expected. Perhaps after that it will be enough to
moonshot over 100K
Towards summer-fall next year.

I will try to include the URL to the pattern here but if I fail, you can search;
"Three peaks and domed house"

https://www.google.com/search?q=three%2Bpeaks%2Band%2Bdomed&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjkmd6r5d70AhW3SvEDHXetBmYQ_AUoAnoECAEQBA&biw=1744&bih=921&dpr=1.1#imgrc=bP5IPJwEapnTXM

It looks something like this if URL didn't show;



I am incredibly bullish on Crypto and Blockchain and over 90% invested in Crypto.
Full Disclosure I plan on decreasing my exposure to 75% if we pump to those prementioned fib levels.
.. only to buy more :=)

Just my 2 Sats.
-Kaynaki