Throw Back Tuesday: Tesla forecast from Sept 2013
"September 17, 2013 Comments:
The run up in TSLA from the 30's to 170 occurred in dramatic speed due to the tremendous doubt about the ability of the company to put a product to market that would be successful. The value of the company is now close to $20 billion and is at a level where investors just need time to see how the company will execute in a few quarters to see if they can grow into their "boots", so to speak. Imagine you are sitting in a classroom next to the smartest kid you know who aces every test that comes out. Elon Musk is that kid and Tesla is the price of owning a share of Elon Musk. It is pretty easy to guess that his success will continue. The problem is now to figure out how long it will take for the earnings to justify the stock price. Amazon has defied logic by going for market share instead of earnings and sits on a massive market capitalization. Tesla could go for a massive market share too, so the earnings test isn't the only way to attack the shares. The disbelievers have sold short the stock hoping for TSLA to stumble and provide them an opportunity to cover their shorts at a profit. However, the argument I had proposed was for another company to buy TSLA (when they were $4 billion in value) as it is a drop in the bucket for AAPL (at the time when they had a hundred billion in cash lying around doing nothing for them). Even little old GE could have bought TSLA. "
The run up in TSLA from the 30's to 170 occurred in dramatic speed due to the tremendous doubt about the ability of the company to put a product to market that would be successful. The value of the company is now close to $20 billion and is at a level where investors just need time to see how the company will execute in a few quarters to see if they can grow into their "boots", so to speak. Imagine you are sitting in a classroom next to the smartest kid you know who aces every test that comes out. Elon Musk is that kid and Tesla is the price of owning a share of Elon Musk. It is pretty easy to guess that his success will continue. The problem is now to figure out how long it will take for the earnings to justify the stock price. Amazon has defied logic by going for market share instead of earnings and sits on a massive market capitalization. Tesla could go for a massive market share too, so the earnings test isn't the only way to attack the shares. The disbelievers have sold short the stock hoping for TSLA to stumble and provide them an opportunity to cover their shorts at a profit. However, the argument I had proposed was for another company to buy TSLA (when they were $4 billion in value) as it is a drop in the bucket for AAPL (at the time when they had a hundred billion in cash lying around doing nothing for them). Even little old GE could have bought TSLA. "
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