Everyone is looking for good news for TSLA in the midst of a bearish first quarter right? The sky is falling, the stock is overbought, back to $400, EV market is overextended, etc. Yes, I've witnessed the negative sentiment as well.
Here's the BLUF: TSLA is in consolidation (neutral), and since it is consolidating from a downtrend, it is neutral-bearish. However, it is consolidating between the 38% and 61.8% retracement areas, while staying above the 200MA ($535) on the daily. Therefore, technically, the long-term trend for TSLA is still bullish. Furthermore, The weekly lows have been ascending, while the highs encounter resistance around $712, which makes the pattern an ascending triangle. Ascending triangles are intrinsically bullish.
On the weekly charts, the support is solid around $400, based on 14 weeks (4 months) of consolidation. TSLA retracing to the 50%, 61.8% levels is normal. Looking at the TD Sequential indicator, we are nearing the completion of a #9 bar. In order for #9 to print, it must close lower than bar #5, which suggests TSLA should close below $600 next week, roughly at the %61.8 retracement area, which also coincides with closing the $30 gap created on 9 March. If this happens, a reversal to the upside is possible around the week beginning 05 April. You can learn more about the TD Sequential theory using the source below.
Gap Analysis: TSLA should close the $565 - $595 gap before recovery
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