TESLA T.A. LONGTERM OUTLOOK
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Hello everyone,
PLEASE NOTE:
So just to put it out there, i am by no means an expert / master of T.A. This is strictly for educational purposes and would love to hear your insights, tips, advice and more on TESLA. Best ways to learn is through expressing what you've learned so far and engaging with others.
Also, i tend to focus on TA alone and barely go into FA and therefore will also not address the current global MACRO trends occurring, keeping it strictly TA.
JUMPING RIGHT IN:
First off lets note that we are on the MONTHLY Timeframe
The first pattern i notice is the 3 Horizontal zones
1. 1st one lasted 33 months, about 2 years
2. 2nd one lasted 70 months, about 6 years
3. our Current one is so far at 19 months
Using the first 2 datapoint of 33 and 70, we get an average of 51 months roughly. And the current Horizontal zone we are in potentially can last between 33 to 70 months, give or take.
These look like consolidation or accumulation zones before MASSIVE bull runs leading to new Horizontal/consolidation/accumulation zones.
So in terms of price structure of our Current Zone, anything below $600 would be a NO NO for the bulls, because that would mean we would be attempting to change the trend to the down side.
Anything above $1200, would be a NO NO for the bears, as that could mean that we are attempting to start a new BULL run.
So we can expect to trade within this range until CONFIRMATIONS above or below, perhaps keeping us in here for atleast 2 years to 6 years.
I have also applied a GREEN trendline, that indicates a current DOWNTREND for the last 6 months of price action. WATCH this, if we can CONFIRM above this trendline, we could hit the upper horizontal white trendline of $1200.
INDICATORS: Named from Top to Bottom
1. RSI - So to make sure we are good, we need to keep the HIGHER LOW trend and maintain the green trendline, if we see a LOWER LOW that could mean we are breaking the LOWER white horizontal trend line.
2. STOCH RSI - im also looking at this which shows momentum, we are currently oversold but under 20 level. I would love to see it above 20 level which would be bullish, everytime TESLA crossed 20 level of this indicator on Monthly, we've had upward move. I would also like to see it go above the Green line. Indicated by the blue scribble i added, i would like to see the stoch rsi do something like that where it goes above the 80 level and stalls up there.
3. The ADX and DI - Bullish = if white line crosses the Green line and its pointed upwards, Bearish would be if Red line crosses above Green and white line pierces it pointing upwards.
CONCLUSION:
We are in a healthy consolidation range between $600 and $1200. We can potentially trade in this range for a few more years. Though in the monthly timeframe only 2 observations is on lower side. A break and confirmation below 600 would mean trend change to downside. A break and confirmation above 1200 would mean trend change to upside. SO yeah, there you have to folks. Kind of what I'm seeing in TESLA currently. Hope this is insightful. Please do comment, let me know what you think and what your thoughts are.
PLEASE NOTE:
So just to put it out there, i am by no means an expert / master of T.A. This is strictly for educational purposes and would love to hear your insights, tips, advice and more on TESLA. Best ways to learn is through expressing what you've learned so far and engaging with others.
Also, i tend to focus on TA alone and barely go into FA and therefore will also not address the current global MACRO trends occurring, keeping it strictly TA.
JUMPING RIGHT IN:
First off lets note that we are on the MONTHLY Timeframe
The first pattern i notice is the 3 Horizontal zones
1. 1st one lasted 33 months, about 2 years
2. 2nd one lasted 70 months, about 6 years
3. our Current one is so far at 19 months
Using the first 2 datapoint of 33 and 70, we get an average of 51 months roughly. And the current Horizontal zone we are in potentially can last between 33 to 70 months, give or take.
These look like consolidation or accumulation zones before MASSIVE bull runs leading to new Horizontal/consolidation/accumulation zones.
So in terms of price structure of our Current Zone, anything below $600 would be a NO NO for the bulls, because that would mean we would be attempting to change the trend to the down side.
Anything above $1200, would be a NO NO for the bears, as that could mean that we are attempting to start a new BULL run.
So we can expect to trade within this range until CONFIRMATIONS above or below, perhaps keeping us in here for atleast 2 years to 6 years.
I have also applied a GREEN trendline, that indicates a current DOWNTREND for the last 6 months of price action. WATCH this, if we can CONFIRM above this trendline, we could hit the upper horizontal white trendline of $1200.
INDICATORS: Named from Top to Bottom
1. RSI - So to make sure we are good, we need to keep the HIGHER LOW trend and maintain the green trendline, if we see a LOWER LOW that could mean we are breaking the LOWER white horizontal trend line.
2. STOCH RSI - im also looking at this which shows momentum, we are currently oversold but under 20 level. I would love to see it above 20 level which would be bullish, everytime TESLA crossed 20 level of this indicator on Monthly, we've had upward move. I would also like to see it go above the Green line. Indicated by the blue scribble i added, i would like to see the stoch rsi do something like that where it goes above the 80 level and stalls up there.
3. The ADX and DI - Bullish = if white line crosses the Green line and its pointed upwards, Bearish would be if Red line crosses above Green and white line pierces it pointing upwards.
CONCLUSION:
We are in a healthy consolidation range between $600 and $1200. We can potentially trade in this range for a few more years. Though in the monthly timeframe only 2 observations is on lower side. A break and confirmation below 600 would mean trend change to downside. A break and confirmation above 1200 would mean trend change to upside. SO yeah, there you have to folks. Kind of what I'm seeing in TESLA currently. Hope this is insightful. Please do comment, let me know what you think and what your thoughts are.
Ghi chú
If there is a 1D or 1W close above with confirmation ABOVE Green trendline. I may take a quick trade, longing to the $1200 area.Ghi chú
We can also test the 21EMA in which case i may also take a trade putting stop loss below the EMA.
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