Is Tesla on the Brink of a Breakout?

Tesla: Coiled Tightly as Breakout Looms

Tesla's stock is resembling a tightly wound Tesla coil, reflecting the market's struggle to resolve its current equilibrium.

In recent months, Tesla’s share price has been contained beneath a descending trendline which has mapped the lower swing highs from the July peak (see daily candle chart below).

However, despite multiple reasons to sell-off in recent weeks, including a weakened outlook for the EV market and a damming short note from research house Bernstein, the stock has remained resilient. Since early-November Tesla has carved a bullish series of higher swing lows – taking the shares back above their 200 day moving average (MA).

Presently, the stock is caught within a 'wedge' pattern, squeezed between a short-term ascending trendline from November lows and a long-term descending trendline from July highs. As this pattern approaches its apex, Tesla has begun consolidating sideways within a tight box formation, indicating an imminent breakout.

Tesla (TSLA) Daily Chart
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results

Lower Timeframe Analysis

Zooming into the hourly candle chart highlights the intensity of the recent consolidation box…
This timeframe can also be useful for swing traders looking to time breakout trades. A decisive break and hold above the consolidation box on the hourly timeframe could potentially trigger a larger wave of buying pressure. Conversely, a break and hold below the consolidation box could see the November swing lows swiftly retested.

Tesla (TSLA) 1-Hour Candle Chart
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results


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