The start of the bear run i believe has begun, vols vxd have spiked up 4% already, the market is down us30 and volume is on pace to be the highest in a month - all of which are bearish signs INCONJUNCTION with my previous article where we are seeing riskoff assets outperform today with us1! , xauusd and usdjpy. Rates also as a result got hammered with TYX and TNX selling off as demand/ liquidty floods in for the low risk govts.
All of which were bubbling along and were set off by an outstanding unemployment figure (4.7% vs 4.9%) which is likely to put tailwinds in the feds hiking plane since it is a key measure they target - especially when key fed members (Kaplan) has before insisted the economy is close, if not at, full employment (thus we need a hike). This emp report will likely spur on kaplan and the other hikers to push for an increase in june as furthering employment/ failure to apply the economic breaks (with a hike) could cause an overshoot on their 2% CPI target. futuresmag.com/2016/06/02/feds-kaplan-says-us-pretty-darn-close-fully-employed
as discussed in detail in my previous article i am short equities now for the next 4 weeks at least, i expect a 5-10% retracement citing CB and brexit event uncertainty and in general poor bull drivers as the cause of the bear.
Ghi chú
Also a 6m hike cycle will be preferential as it is a good arbritary interval - 6 month hike cycle could be a long term goal by the fed - June-Dec
Thông tin và ấn phẩm không có nghĩa là và không cấu thành, tài chính, đầu tư, kinh doanh, hoặc các loại lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị khác được cung cấp hoặc xác nhận bởi TradingView. Đọc thêm trong Điều khoản sử dụng.