Weekly update US30 13.02-17.02
US30 is in a range, since few weeks. It is very unclear structure right now, but we know how the asset moves.
Since us30 moved down with a low liquidity move, I am targeting the internal liquidity for next week. Of course more accurate analysis may be given, when the market open and we can see the actual daily and weekly pivot points.
From the charts below, you will see that I have bearish bias for a longer period than a week.
Top-Down Analysis
This chart give us very clear picture of the current price. Us30 is ranging, but for now price is under strong bearish manipulation.
Of course everything can change, because US30 is more affected by the macroeconomics, which for now is not very bullish, but CPI can change the game.
Market structure - time
Because of the consolidation the swing projection is probably not so accurate.
Very interesting is that normally during the earnings seasons us30 is bullish, but not the last time. This is the first sign of bearish move.
If we observe the table of returns, the first what we see is that most of the time February is bullish month. Watch the table again and look the years before and in a recession - massive decline.
Based on my Economic report I am expecting US to fall into recession this year. This is not happening, because of the strong labor market, but soon or later the balloon will blow.
SMT Divergence
This divergence is showing us another bearish sign.
On a higher time frame SP500 already took the buy side liquidity.
COT Reports
Price may consolidate, but the professional traders are very clear about their positions - bearish on the stock market.
Momentum
From the current momentum, we can only see that price is ranging, but look how big bearish candles price formed. For me the natural momentum is bearish.
Breadth
Looks like more bearish than bullish.
Put/Call ratio and CNN Fear and Greed
For now the CNN indicator is bullish, but it seems that Put/Call ratio is going up (bearish sign)
TRIN index
Right now I dont see extremes to call a reversal point.
Since us30 moved down with a low liquidity move, I am targeting the internal liquidity for next week. Of course more accurate analysis may be given, when the market open and we can see the actual daily and weekly pivot points.
From the charts below, you will see that I have bearish bias for a longer period than a week.
Top-Down Analysis
This chart give us very clear picture of the current price. Us30 is ranging, but for now price is under strong bearish manipulation.
Of course everything can change, because US30 is more affected by the macroeconomics, which for now is not very bullish, but CPI can change the game.
Market structure - time
Because of the consolidation the swing projection is probably not so accurate.
Very interesting is that normally during the earnings seasons us30 is bullish, but not the last time. This is the first sign of bearish move.
If we observe the table of returns, the first what we see is that most of the time February is bullish month. Watch the table again and look the years before and in a recession - massive decline.
Based on my Economic report I am expecting US to fall into recession this year. This is not happening, because of the strong labor market, but soon or later the balloon will blow.
SMT Divergence
This divergence is showing us another bearish sign.
On a higher time frame SP500 already took the buy side liquidity.
COT Reports
Price may consolidate, but the professional traders are very clear about their positions - bearish on the stock market.
Momentum
From the current momentum, we can only see that price is ranging, but look how big bearish candles price formed. For me the natural momentum is bearish.
Breadth
Looks like more bearish than bullish.
Put/Call ratio and CNN Fear and Greed
For now the CNN indicator is bullish, but it seems that Put/Call ratio is going up (bearish sign)
TRIN index
Right now I dont see extremes to call a reversal point.
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