Weekly gain/loss: + 61 pips
Weekly closing price: 1.3708
Over the course of the last two weeks, the weekly candles have been sandwiched between the 2016 yearly opening level seen at 1.3814 and support chiseled in at 1.3588, leaving upside momentum somewhat weakened. A violation of 1.3814 could lead to a colossal move up to supply drawn from 1.4666-1.4428. Yet, a move seen below the current support, however, would place the 2017 yearly opening base line at 1.3434 on the radar.
Down to the daily timeframe, price action is a tad messy as the unit seesaws around the underside of supply coming in at 1.3859-1.3700, which holds the said 2016 yearly opening level within. The next downside target in view is a support zone formed at 1.3598-1.3559 that houses the current weekly support level.
Since the beginning of the week, the USD/CAD has been seen consolidating between 1.3750/1.3650. Beneath this range is a round number seen at 1.36, which happens to sit two pips above the daily support area at 1.3598-1.3559 (the next downside target on the daily scale). Above, however, sits the 1.38 handle. This level is attention-grabbing due to it being positioned just below the 2016 yearly opening level seen on the weekly chart at 1.3814, and also seeing as how it connects with a H4 AB=CD 127.2% ext. marked at 1.3797(taken from the low 1.3647).
Our suggestions: Of course, the current H4 range is an area that could be traded and may very well work out beautifully.
With that being said though, given our conservative nature, we would not be looking to sell this piece until price has connected with the above noted 2016 yearly opening level (essentially around the 1.38 region seen circled in green on the H4 chart). The reason being, apart from the merging confluence with the H4 127.2% ext. and weekly 2016 yearly opening level, is that this line is firmly located within the upper limits of the said daily supply and thus allows the trader to conservatively place stops above this area.
Also of note is the 1.36 handle. Boasting a daily support zone positioned a few pips below at 1.3598-1.3559 (houses a weekly support at 1.3588) 1.36, in our opinion, is worthy of attention.
Data points to consider: No high-impacting news events on the docket today.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: 1.36 region is a worthy place for longs which requires no additional confirmation (stop loss: conservative at 1.3557).
• Sells: 1.3814/1.38 region is an ideal place for shorts as we believe this area requires no additional confirmation (stop loss: conservative at 1.3861).