USD/CAD is stuck in a 1.2010/1.2200 trading zone with the lower bound increasing tested. It may be that the Bank of Canada is drawing a line in the sand at 1.2000, to relieve pressure on Canadian exporters, after the 18% fall in the pair from the March 2020 high. The pair did try and move higher last Wednesday, hitting a high around 1.2135 but this move was retraced the next day. USD/CAD opened today below the 20-day simple moving average, a negative sign, while the growing gap between the 20-dsma and the 50-dsma highlights the weak sentiment in the market at the moment. Volatility has fallen to multi-month lows due to the pair’s tight trading conditions, while the market has just dipped into oversold territory for the first time since mid-May.
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