USD-CAD Short-term 4 R:R short setup

In an update to my previous analysis and trade setups posts on the USD/CAD pair:
We are now seeing the rejection we predicted after grabbing liquidity from our HTF supply zone. We rejected off of the upper trendline and are continuing an unconvincing downtrend and more of a consolidation. A breakout to either side is very possible.

This can be part of a massive weekly bullflag to take us out of the HTF downtrend or a reversal from the recent pullback.

I believe for a further push to the upside we need further liquidity and consolidation – lucky for us that level of liquidity is nearby. At this 1.30-1.34 – Look left on the weekly chart and you’ll see this has been a level of attraction and has been broken through and multiple times as both support and resistance.

I expect us to mitigate demand levels below and grab liquidity outside of our trend – with this, expecting a quick and powerful move to the upside having hit these low and attractive levels.

Confluence for short-term Short Trade:
1. On the verge of a Major CHoCH on daily chart
2. HTF strong level below holding a lot of liquidity
3. Upper trendline strong resistance
4. Major demand zones and liquidity below

I will be waiting for this CHoCH on the 15 min time frame to be confirmed and then await a LTF mitigation. Then I will enter a short with my stop loss above the supply zone high/former lower high.
If signals are there, could turn out to be a 4.09 R:R trade with our TP1.

Giao dịch đang hoạt động:

We are awaiting our CHoCH and entry signal! As we can see we have twice mitigated our LTF supply zone as I mentioned would occur in my previous post (linked below), and are awaiting an entrance signal via 2HR (MTF) CHoCH and subsequent 15min supply zone mitigation.