Tracking the highs in USDCHF (Weekly)

1 thg 5, 2019

What we are looking to trade here is the final flow in the swing. As a catalyst for the coming months we have an important Fed remaining on hold today. The Fed funds rate rose to 2.45% this week which leaves only a 5bp margin before the upper bound in the current target range of 2.25 - 2.50%. This will raise the question on forward guidance posing the question if upward pressure does not ease over the next Quarter will there be a ‘technical IOER cut’. To put simply, we are starting to track the highs in USD over the coming weeks and months.

We also have manufacturing data coming from both the US. Whilst we remain above 50 it is looking highly likely we have seen the peak in global manufacturing in this cycle so a move lower before finding a more stable floor seems likely.

From a technical perspective, we are beginning to mark the long term highs in an ending diagonal count. For those following the previous charts (see attached) we have traded live here on Tradingview this ABC leg. We are in the final stages of ABC sequence since 2018 and it's time to begin clearing.

Best of luck and well done all bulls starting to take profits, I know many here have enjoyed the ride.

1 thg 5, 2019

Ghi chú

Invalidation for the count comes into play at the 1.034 highs.. anything higher will unlock 1.065 quickly as we will be trading thin air at those levels.