USD/JPY: Weekly outlook and review.
Weekly Timeframe: Last week shows that the USD/JPY continued on its relentless march north, consequently hitting a major weekly supply area coming in at 117.931-116.799. Is entering the market south a wise move now? Let’s take a look on the lower timeframes to see how price is structured.
Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe clearly shows that price has firmly closed above a daily Quasimodo resistance area at 115.911-115.021, indicating that the path north is likely clear up to a major Quasimodo resistance level at 117.120 (located deep within the aforementioned weekly supply area). Therefore, as per this timeframe more buying could indeed be seen up to this level before serious sellers enter the market. Let’s take a look at what the 4hr timeframe is saying.
4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that a push above 116 was indeed seen, which was later essentially retested as support (116.042) around the close.
Assuming that the buyers can hold above 116, we see very little reason why prices cannot trade to 117, which is if you remember only 12 or so pips below the daily Quasimodo resistance level mentioned above. With that being said, we would not consider buying here since price could just as easily break lower, as we mustn’t forget that larger sellers could indeed enter the market here around the current weekly supply area mentioned above. However, we would be very interested in selling around 117 (116.946) but only with lower timeframe confirmation mind you, since psychological levels are prone to fakeouts.
To wrap up, we see this pair at a level where a decision needs to be made. Take a look on the 4hr chart to see what we believe price could potentially do this week.
Buy/sell levels:
• Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
• Sell orders: 116.946 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Stops will be dependent upon which confirmation signal you use here).
Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe clearly shows that price has firmly closed above a daily Quasimodo resistance area at 115.911-115.021, indicating that the path north is likely clear up to a major Quasimodo resistance level at 117.120 (located deep within the aforementioned weekly supply area). Therefore, as per this timeframe more buying could indeed be seen up to this level before serious sellers enter the market. Let’s take a look at what the 4hr timeframe is saying.
4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that a push above 116 was indeed seen, which was later essentially retested as support (116.042) around the close.
Assuming that the buyers can hold above 116, we see very little reason why prices cannot trade to 117, which is if you remember only 12 or so pips below the daily Quasimodo resistance level mentioned above. With that being said, we would not consider buying here since price could just as easily break lower, as we mustn’t forget that larger sellers could indeed enter the market here around the current weekly supply area mentioned above. However, we would be very interested in selling around 117 (116.946) but only with lower timeframe confirmation mind you, since psychological levels are prone to fakeouts.
To wrap up, we see this pair at a level where a decision needs to be made. Take a look on the 4hr chart to see what we believe price could potentially do this week.
Buy/sell levels:
• Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
• Sell orders: 116.946 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Stops will be dependent upon which confirmation signal you use here).
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