(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
April has been pretty uneventful, ranging between 109.38/106.35.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Demand from 105.70/106.66 received price action on Tuesday after consolidating south of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 108.28 since mid-April. Thursday, as you can see, staged an impressive comeback from the aforesaid base, snapping a six-day losing streak.
Should the said demand eventually abandon its position, we can look forward to demand plotted at 100.68/101.85 perhaps making an appearance.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The week has witnessed a bearish pennant pattern between 106.92/108.07 take hold after having its lower boundary taken out at the beginning of the week. Traditionally, take-profit targets are formed by measuring the preceding move (109.38-106.92) and adding this value to the breakout point (black arrows – 104.89).
Yet, in recent sessions, the pair recovered strongly and is nearing the lower limit of the said pennant formation. This could offer traders a second chance to enter short the pattern should we retest the lower boundary.
H1 timeframe:
The return of buyers yesterday propelled the pair through a number of key technical areas on the H1 timeframe, including the 107 level and a demand-turned supply area at 106.99/107.16.
With highs seen at 107.49, clearing tops at 107.33 (yellow), the retest at 106.99/107.16 could be of interest today, particularly as the area fuses with a local trendline support and boasts a reasonably clear path north towards supply at 107.67/107.56.
Structures of Interest:
The response out of daily demand at 105.70/106.66, coupled with H4 price showing scope to approach the underside of its bearish pennant pattern, could have H1 candles advance from 106.99/107.16 today, with H1 supply at 107.67/107.56 in sight as a logical upside target.
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