Weakness sub 111?
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern (118.66/104.62). February had price elbow a touch outside the upper boundary of the aforementioned descending triangle to 112.22, though retreated lower and produced a shooting star pattern into the month’s end.
March breached the lower edge of the descending triangle, yet has recovered in strong fashion, leaving nearby demand at 96.41/100.81 unchallenged. Note current action is seen mildly fading the descending triangle’s upper boundary.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Shaped in the form of back-to-back indecision candlestick patterns, price action on the daily timeframe is seen testing demand coming in at 110.10/109.52. This perhaps provides a basis for an approach to supply coming in at 112.64/112.10, an area that’s held price action lower on three occasions since March 2019.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
Price action on the H4 timeframe has been compressing within the walls of an ascending channel formation between 101.18/105.91 since mid-March. On top of this, we’ve also recently seen the candles carve out an ascending triangle formation (black lines 111.47/109.33), stationed just south of a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 111.87.
Ascending triangles are typically viewed as continuation patterns, though breakouts to the downside also occur. It is, therefore, worth noting channel support and demand at 109.31/109.56, should a push lower materialise.
H1 timeframe:
USD/JPY struggled to register firm direction Wednesday, as the US dollar index collapsed to lows of 100.84 and most major US indexes recorded reasonably firm gains.
Of late, H1 candles closed south of the 111 handle and approached its 100-period SMA. This is crucial, since filling sell-stop liquidity here could encourage further loss today, with 110 in view as logical support, having seen it hold since March 20th.
Structures of Interest:
Intraday activity on the H1 timeframe toppling 111 suggests H4 action is likely to breach the lower boundary of the ascending triangle formation and perhaps overthrow H4 channel support. A downside move is further bolstered off monthly structure as well as room seen to move to 110.10 on the daily timeframe, the top edge of demand.
Selling opportunities, consequently, may reside sub 111 today.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern (118.66/104.62). February had price elbow a touch outside the upper boundary of the aforementioned descending triangle to 112.22, though retreated lower and produced a shooting star pattern into the month’s end.
March breached the lower edge of the descending triangle, yet has recovered in strong fashion, leaving nearby demand at 96.41/100.81 unchallenged. Note current action is seen mildly fading the descending triangle’s upper boundary.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Shaped in the form of back-to-back indecision candlestick patterns, price action on the daily timeframe is seen testing demand coming in at 110.10/109.52. This perhaps provides a basis for an approach to supply coming in at 112.64/112.10, an area that’s held price action lower on three occasions since March 2019.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
Price action on the H4 timeframe has been compressing within the walls of an ascending channel formation between 101.18/105.91 since mid-March. On top of this, we’ve also recently seen the candles carve out an ascending triangle formation (black lines 111.47/109.33), stationed just south of a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 111.87.
Ascending triangles are typically viewed as continuation patterns, though breakouts to the downside also occur. It is, therefore, worth noting channel support and demand at 109.31/109.56, should a push lower materialise.
H1 timeframe:
USD/JPY struggled to register firm direction Wednesday, as the US dollar index collapsed to lows of 100.84 and most major US indexes recorded reasonably firm gains.
Of late, H1 candles closed south of the 111 handle and approached its 100-period SMA. This is crucial, since filling sell-stop liquidity here could encourage further loss today, with 110 in view as logical support, having seen it hold since March 20th.
Structures of Interest:
Intraday activity on the H1 timeframe toppling 111 suggests H4 action is likely to breach the lower boundary of the ascending triangle formation and perhaps overthrow H4 channel support. A downside move is further bolstered off monthly structure as well as room seen to move to 110.10 on the daily timeframe, the top edge of demand.
Selling opportunities, consequently, may reside sub 111 today.
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