USDJPY: How high can it go? A complete analysis
Cập nhật
USDJPY is climbing higher with each passing day. Everytime it seems like the rally is overdone and the market has peaked, USDJPY just keeps creating newer highs. At this point, I assume that a lot of retail Fx Traders are selling this pair or they are already holding sells.
So, I would like to write a word or two about the possible moves that you can see in USDJPY in the coming days.
From a technical perspective, USDJPY has broken two important Resistances:
1) The descending Trend Line which has kept every advance in check since October 2018.
2) The local Resistance around 109.70 which was holding quite well since late November, 2019.
So, at this point it's only logical that the path of least Resistance is to the upside and USDJPY will probably reach 110.51. If 110.50 breaks, the next resistances lie at 112.30 and 114.50 respectively.
So, will this really happen?
Well, no one knows for sure. This rally in USDJPY along with other JPY crosses is fueled by US-China Phase 1 trade deal prospects which is expected to be signed this week.
A lot depends on how the markets react to the formal signing of the deal. In my opinion, markets have fully priced in the Phase 1 trade deal.
So, once the deal happens we can see a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction from the market.
Besides, the deal doesn't address the existing tariffs. Nor, does it take care of the most contentious aspects.
So, at this stage, I would advise traders to stay on the sidelines when it comes to trading USDJPY or other JPY crosses.
These technical breaks can't be taken as an absolute certainty to go long. Neither can we sell now merely based on speculation.
The likelihood of USDJPY reaching 114.50 in the next few weeks is the same as it reaching 104.50. So, trade with caution and good money management.
So, I would like to write a word or two about the possible moves that you can see in USDJPY in the coming days.
From a technical perspective, USDJPY has broken two important Resistances:
1) The descending Trend Line which has kept every advance in check since October 2018.
2) The local Resistance around 109.70 which was holding quite well since late November, 2019.
So, at this point it's only logical that the path of least Resistance is to the upside and USDJPY will probably reach 110.51. If 110.50 breaks, the next resistances lie at 112.30 and 114.50 respectively.
So, will this really happen?
Well, no one knows for sure. This rally in USDJPY along with other JPY crosses is fueled by US-China Phase 1 trade deal prospects which is expected to be signed this week.
A lot depends on how the markets react to the formal signing of the deal. In my opinion, markets have fully priced in the Phase 1 trade deal.
So, once the deal happens we can see a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction from the market.
Besides, the deal doesn't address the existing tariffs. Nor, does it take care of the most contentious aspects.
So, at this stage, I would advise traders to stay on the sidelines when it comes to trading USDJPY or other JPY crosses.
These technical breaks can't be taken as an absolute certainty to go long. Neither can we sell now merely based on speculation.
The likelihood of USDJPY reaching 114.50 in the next few weeks is the same as it reaching 104.50. So, trade with caution and good money management.
Ghi chú
Went to the resistance I market in the chart at 112.30 and then dropped
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và ấn phẩm không có nghĩa là và không cấu thành, tài chính, đầu tư, kinh doanh, hoặc các loại lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị khác được cung cấp hoặc xác nhận bởi TradingView. Đọc thêm trong Điều khoản sử dụng.