USDJPY BULLISH WILL Go to 180 Yen
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the Bank of Japan is unlikely to increase its ultra-loose policy rate until Governor Kuroda's term expires in the first quarter of 2023.
A break below 124is the start of bearish trend.
Technical: BULLISH
STRATEGY
BUY THE CORRECTION
Higher Highs
Higher Lows
Fundamentals:
See my previouse USDJPY trade ideas.All Tades are active, and a lot of fundamental explanations of USDJPY. Read them.Undestand them,then you can mae good trades.
Japan has kept interest rates at 0% since the global financial crisis in 2008.
Japan’s current interest rate is -0.10% which has been in place since January 2016.
Wven an interest rate rise will hold the bullish trend.
Japan must increase its interest rates to minimum 5points, to make eve, and make Yen more attractive. And this neve will happen duing the next 5-10 years!!!!!
As the yen continues to depreciate, and the inflation rate is expected to accelerate in the coming months, what are analysts’ forecasts for Japan's interest rate in 5 years?
The BoJ has projected in January that long-term rates could rise from 0.3% seen this fiscal year, to 0.4% in 2023-2025, before climbing eventually to 3.1% in fiscal 2032. The projections show that a 0.5 percentage-point rise in long-term rates would add 3.3 percentage points to the debt-to-GDP ratio.
Fitch Ratings and ING expected the Bank of Japan interest rate would remain unchanged at -0.1% until the end of 2024.
BofA expected the Bank of Japan to hold the ultra-loose policy rate through the remainder of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s tenure, and any policy normalisation would be delayed until new leadership came in after April 2023, despite pressure from the weaker yen.
The yen is likley to benefit later in 2023, as we believe the BoJ will eventually end its yield curve control policy and the Japanese bond yields will rise
Therefor traders will sell yen more excessively before this happens.
A decline in long-end U.S. yields and a peaking out in terminal rate expectations into 2023, alongside the risk of a moderate U.S. recession, should clear the runway for a lower repricing of the dollar/yen pair in 2023.
In addition, the BoJ shocked markets in December by relaxing its yield curve control (YCC) policy of pinning yields close to zero.
The central bank announced it would allow 10-year Japanese yields to climb as high as 0.5 percent, compared with 0.25 percent previously. The yen strengthened against the dollar after the news.
Electricity and gas for households registered the biggest jump of 21.5% and 20.1%, respectively. Japan is a net importer of oil and natural gas, whose prices have hit record highs amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Food prices in Japan rose by 7.3% yoy in January 2023.
The BoJ said in its January 2023 statement:
“On the price front, the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI (all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.5-4.0 percent due to rises in prices of such items as energy, food, and durable goods. Meanwhile, inflation expectations have risen.”
The new economic policy package will support domestic demand, partly offsetting subdued household confidence and real income. Loss of momentum in trading partner economies will moderate exports. After peaking in the course of 2022, headline consumer price inflation will fall back in late 2023 as energy prices stabilise, but then gradually increase again towards 2% in 2024 as wage growth gains momentum.
A break below 124is the start of bearish trend.
Technical: BULLISH
STRATEGY
BUY THE CORRECTION
Higher Highs
Higher Lows
Fundamentals:
See my previouse USDJPY trade ideas.All Tades are active, and a lot of fundamental explanations of USDJPY. Read them.Undestand them,then you can mae good trades.
Japan has kept interest rates at 0% since the global financial crisis in 2008.
Japan’s current interest rate is -0.10% which has been in place since January 2016.
Wven an interest rate rise will hold the bullish trend.
Japan must increase its interest rates to minimum 5points, to make eve, and make Yen more attractive. And this neve will happen duing the next 5-10 years!!!!!
As the yen continues to depreciate, and the inflation rate is expected to accelerate in the coming months, what are analysts’ forecasts for Japan's interest rate in 5 years?
The BoJ has projected in January that long-term rates could rise from 0.3% seen this fiscal year, to 0.4% in 2023-2025, before climbing eventually to 3.1% in fiscal 2032. The projections show that a 0.5 percentage-point rise in long-term rates would add 3.3 percentage points to the debt-to-GDP ratio.
Fitch Ratings and ING expected the Bank of Japan interest rate would remain unchanged at -0.1% until the end of 2024.
BofA expected the Bank of Japan to hold the ultra-loose policy rate through the remainder of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s tenure, and any policy normalisation would be delayed until new leadership came in after April 2023, despite pressure from the weaker yen.
The yen is likley to benefit later in 2023, as we believe the BoJ will eventually end its yield curve control policy and the Japanese bond yields will rise
Therefor traders will sell yen more excessively before this happens.
A decline in long-end U.S. yields and a peaking out in terminal rate expectations into 2023, alongside the risk of a moderate U.S. recession, should clear the runway for a lower repricing of the dollar/yen pair in 2023.
In addition, the BoJ shocked markets in December by relaxing its yield curve control (YCC) policy of pinning yields close to zero.
The central bank announced it would allow 10-year Japanese yields to climb as high as 0.5 percent, compared with 0.25 percent previously. The yen strengthened against the dollar after the news.
Electricity and gas for households registered the biggest jump of 21.5% and 20.1%, respectively. Japan is a net importer of oil and natural gas, whose prices have hit record highs amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Food prices in Japan rose by 7.3% yoy in January 2023.
The BoJ said in its January 2023 statement:
“On the price front, the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI (all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.5-4.0 percent due to rises in prices of such items as energy, food, and durable goods. Meanwhile, inflation expectations have risen.”
The new economic policy package will support domestic demand, partly offsetting subdued household confidence and real income. Loss of momentum in trading partner economies will moderate exports. After peaking in the course of 2022, headline consumer price inflation will fall back in late 2023 as energy prices stabilise, but then gradually increase again towards 2% in 2024 as wage growth gains momentum.
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USDJPY BULLISH WILL Go to 180 YenLONG
the Bank of Japan is unlikely to increase its ultra-loose policy rate until Governor Kuroda's term expires in the first quarter of 2023.
A break below 124is the start of bearish trend.
Technical: BULLISH
STRATEGY
BUY THE CORRECTION
Higher Highs
Higher Lows
Fundamentals:
See my previouse USDJPY trade ideas.All Tades are active, and a lot of fundamental explanations of USDJPY. Read them.Undestand them,then you can mae good trades.
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Week Ahead - July 17thNext week, investors will focus on the earnings results from major US companies, such as Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Netflix, Tesla, and Johnson & Johnson. Additionally, it will be interesting to monitor retail sales, industrial production, and housing data, including existing home sales, housing starts, and building permits. In other news, China is set to release Q2 GDP growth, retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investments. Markets will also be attentive to inflation rates in the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and South Africa. Furthermore, the central banks of Turkey and South Africa will make decisions regarding monetary policy, Australia will publish the unemployment rate, and the UK and Canada will release retail sales data.
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This trade is stil open and activerelevant market wraps
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TRADE OPEN and active : YEN DOWN! YEN DOWN YEN DOWN!Ghi chú
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trade is open.Trade setup as on the chart above explained and mentioned is open(See the Time Frame): The Trade setup above is only based on daily,weekly,monthly and 4 Hours timeframe. For daytraders who are involved on lower time frame you need to calculate or possibly use your other strategies. The trade setup above is only created for trend followers, also daytraders can benefit of it, if they choose to.
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masdaq bullish after FOMC , I bouht more nowmy target stays at 21000Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..
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masdaq bullish after FOMC , I bouht more nowmy target stays at 21000Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..
long dow jones long rty long indices and stocks
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Trade openLong
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Wait for CPI today. Possible Correction(I hope so that the makrket goes down first to 15000-14500) That is exactly the Gap Fill ,before Nasdaq Flies to 15850 and 16250 2nd Gap FILL)...So ge ready ,wait and watch closely the supports and resistances,better with Divergenes. In the chats and social media a lot of amateur traders are nervouse, becuz no trading experiences.So stop listening to them...Chats will cost you money. Instead relax,wait,have patience till we get the buy zones. Read comments above. I mentioned already Picadelli Points.
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Japanese Yen Breaks Above 145
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