USDJPY Trade set-ups for this week's Fed outcome

31 thg 10, 2017

USDJPY
A battle royale is raging between these two heavyweights,
caught between the lines of near term support and resistance
shown on the chart. The fight could go on until Thursday at
this rate when one of those two lines should finally give way...
It's OK to buy at 113 (with a stop no more than 20 pips away)
but would still go flat again at 114.30-114.50 as it's now become such
a big level, where fixed resistance frrom a triple top meets the
dynamic resistance line falling from the highs.
Not looking to short again from 114.3 because DXY is saying
the break, when it comes, should be in favour of the Dollar,
not the Yen.
Therefore unless daytrading this pair needs watching over,
awaiting the break (whichever way it comes) for the next
worthwhile swing trade...

Upside break for USD: USD needs to break above 114.3-114.5
to rout the bears and trigger a flurry buy stops and fresh buy
orders just above here - a very bullish outcome - breaking
through tough converging lines of overhead resistance in the
process. This would create a medium term upside target at
118.1-118.6 for swing traders and a nearer term upside target
at 115.3-115.6 for day traders.
USD will be likely to fall away again from here, coming back
to test 114.5-114.3 range one last time before rallying
towards 118.

Downside Break for USD: A break below 112.85 (first trade)
should result in a fast test of 111.73 - then, only when 111.50
gives way can a more a prolonged period of dollar weakness
be expected back to 108-107 range (second short trade) -
ideal for swing traders, if we see it.
Either way, there should be some good trades emerging over
next 48 hours on this pair. Consider setting alerts for either eventuality...