"Good Alts" VS "Dead Alts" Part 2

6 thg 7, 2020

At the end of 2019, I created a study showing the relative performance of certain altcoins, to see if it would have any impact on future price potential. Lo and behold, VeChain has moved up by over 100% since then, while Waltonchain has dropped by about 30%. Indeed, the study predicted that VET would perform better, and that Walton would continue to make new lows. Here is the original post:

Previously, I also made an analysis showing why VET could make an impressive parabolic move, similar to XRP in 2017. Right now, we might be seeing the beginning of such a move, but it depends on whether or not the rest of the crypto market can hold up, given macro economic conditions. With a similar token supply and FOMO factor (lots of current positive news, similar to XRP in 2017), there's no reason why VET can't be valued similarly (or higher) than XRP is currently.

Here's the original VET/XRP comparison:

In this current analysis, I will continue to compare alts that have maintained or stayed above support from August, 2018 with those which have ventured to new lows. The reason I'm using August 2018 as a reference point is because I believe it to be the first moment where many "long term" altcoin holders capitulated. The volume on that dump was massive, and many coins were bought up, resulting in sizable 300-500% moves for many over the ensuing weeks. After multiple liquidity events since then, I think it's interesting to look at which alts succeeded in maintaining those supports, or even heading to new highs. As you will see, some alts are only just now heading back to those support levels. Even though the crypto market tends to move in tandem, there is a clear class distinction between different altcoins. The purple box represents the broken price support from 2018, and the green lines represent important hurdles that must be reached for the respective coin to exit the bearish trend.

This study is to also see whether the relative price performance impacts future price appreciation potential for these given cryptocurrencies. For VET vs WTC, it's worked out so far, but with Bitcoin Dominance looking relatively toppy, it'll be interesting to see if any of these "Dead Alts" make significant comebacks, particularly those with established track records, like XRP, XLM, and LTC.

NANO vs GVT

Despite heading to new lows briefly this year, NANO has impressed the market with a substantial run back above the long term $0.70 support level, which was first tested in August, 2018. Meanwhile, Genesis Vision continues to underperform. I've noticed that a lot of price performance is directly related to community activity. This observation has led me to pick certain coins over others. GVT and WTC had been part of my crypto portfolio, but I let them go due to community activity and sentiment. Part of why NANO might be holding support rather well, given its lower exposure, could be due to the strength of their community.

LINK vs LTC

Yet another example of community sentiment prevailing. Litecoin has had little to no development. It is also becoming outclassed by other cryptocurrencies that are gaining more liquidity and speed. Although LTC may continue to be a major player in the space due to liquidity and brand-recognition alone, their community and progress doesn't bode well for relative price performance.

BAT vs XLM

Again, BAT and Brave have achieved a lot of industry recognition and community support, whereas XLM has lost a lot of its rocket power. I'm still a big supporter of Stellar, and I'm seeing some positive signs in terms of recent price action. Some of these underperforming coins may not underperform forever. It depends a lot on recent price action as well, and which coins have made strong comebacks since the March 12th liquidity event. Another point here is to see whether some previously underperforming crypto assets can reverse course and start outperforming. XLM has achieved this in the past, while BAT still has no history of long term, sustained, price appreciation.

ADA vs XRP

This an instance where progress has been rewarded. Although Cardano's recent price appreciation still hasn't been enough to get it quite back to desirable levels, it's doing miles better than XRP. It should be noted that XRP behaved similarly prior to the 2017 bull run. I'm looking forward to see if there comes a time where XRP outperforms the market again. This would give me some great trading opportunities to increase some of my other positions, since I do hold some XRP. If ADA can break this resistance level, I think it can head further into the top 10 by market cap. Perhaps it can even take some business away from Ethereum once it's up and running. This is one I will continue to watch, and perhaps scale into a position over the coming months, depending on how my portfolio performs and whether or not I have excess capital available.


BNB vs ETH

Even though BNB has underperformed somewhat recently, it's still well above its bottom from August, 2018, while Ethereum still cannot sustain above those levels very well. This pair is an example of one where the tables might begin to turn soon, unless BNB begins another massive upswing. For now, Ethereum has a bit more attention, with more developments coming within the next 2 years. Since it has a lot of liquidity, I wouldn't be surprised to see whales entering some large positions here.

XTZ vs ENG

Tezos is a promising new blockchain with a cool "Liquid Proof of Stake" mechanism. This allows the chain to be self-mutable, meaning it can update itself without needing a fork. While it doesn't have much adoption, the team has plenty of funds, since it was one of the most successful ICO's back in 2017. Enigma, on the other hand, is an example of a relatively dead project. Their current chain is essentially obsolete investment-wise, seeing as they were sued with Securities fraud. With low liquidity to boot, it'll be interesting to see if ENG can see any sort of price appreciation, just in terms of pump and dumps or misplaced speculation.

ZIL vs IOTA

ZIL has done quite well recently, but even with this pump, it's only just back to August, 2018 levels. That's pretty impressive (and not necessarily in a good way). IOTA, by comparison, has underperformed. Perhaps it can achieve some of its former glory one day, but community sentiment isn't entirely great on that one.


Anyway, that's it! Let's see what happens. Perhaps in another 6 months I'll do another update on this study. There's still a lot of risks in markets, so I wouldn't be surprised to see yet another liquidity event/shakeout before the summer is over, though the market is doing well at the current time.

This is not financial advice - meant purely for speculation, entertainment, and education. Thanks for reading. Please check out my other recent ideas and follow me, since I'm really trying to focus on quality over quantity at this time.

-Victor Cobra

-Victor Cobra