Technical Indicators: - 1H Fair Value Gap (FVG): Current price is within the 1-hour FVG, indicating a potential short entry point. - MACD Divergence: A bearish divergence between the MACD indicator and price action suggests weakening upward momentum. - Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) Divergence: Bearish CVD divergence indicates increasing selling pressure despite rising prices. - Ichimoku Kijun Levels: Price is above the 1H, 4H, and daily Kijun lines, placing it in a relative premium zone, which may precede a downward correction.
Fundamental Factors: - Fear Premium: Recent price increases are attributed to geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East, leading to a 'fear premium' in oil prices. - Bearish Macro Outlook: Rising U.S. oil inventories and weak global demand projections, especially from China, suggest a bearish outlook for oil prices.
Trade Parameters: - Position: Short USOIL - Entry: Within the 1H FVG at current market price. - Risk Management: - Risk per Trade: 1% of trading capital - Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:2
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