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Gold Trend Analysis over H4 Chart.
Trading is all about having an edge in the market, regardless of what instrument it is
After such a huge drop in gold and further decline afterward, selling at such levels would be the equivalent of gambling on a FOMO basis since you would not be getting a decent risk to reward ratio. Unless you're an experienced scalper who wants to catch the final few pips of the wave, or a big market player who wants to get longs stopped out.
If you believe that the market will drop further, it is always better to wait for a retracement and confirmation of a lower high before re-entering to get a better risk to reward ratio. If you observe gold on the 4H chart, we have a pullback from 1781.95 with the past 2 4H candles being decent bullish bodies off an oversold RSI. This provides a standard buying reason with a stop loss just below 1781.95 if you're looking to trade the retracement. However, as I mentioned before, as long as we don't see a close below somewhere around 1759, I wouldn't consider this a downtrend yet. It may be posting a new higher low for a break above 1877 to 1900 as many are anticipating.
On the downside, we may get some retracement here, see a lower high formed if the price does not close above 1877, and eventually break 1781 to get a lower low. This will shift my biasness to the downside. But there are many US news events coming up today including FOMC minutes. Such events tend to give gold a good shove somewhere.
Currently Gold is Looking for Buying Trend.
After such a huge drop in gold and further decline afterward, selling at such levels would be the equivalent of gambling on a FOMO basis since you would not be getting a decent risk to reward ratio. Unless you're an experienced scalper who wants to catch the final few pips of the wave, or a big market player who wants to get longs stopped out.
If you believe that the market will drop further, it is always better to wait for a retracement and confirmation of a lower high before re-entering to get a better risk to reward ratio. If you observe gold on the 4H chart, we have a pullback from 1781.95 with the past 2 4H candles being decent bullish bodies off an oversold RSI. This provides a standard buying reason with a stop loss just below 1781.95 if you're looking to trade the retracement. However, as I mentioned before, as long as we don't see a close below somewhere around 1759, I wouldn't consider this a downtrend yet. It may be posting a new higher low for a break above 1877 to 1900 as many are anticipating.
On the downside, we may get some retracement here, see a lower high formed if the price does not close above 1877, and eventually break 1781 to get a lower low. This will shift my biasness to the downside. But there are many US news events coming up today including FOMC minutes. Such events tend to give gold a good shove somewhere.
Currently Gold is Looking for Buying Trend.
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