Gold Price Prospects for H2

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Gold Price Prospects for H2

As shown by the daily XAU/USD chart:

→ Since November 2022, the price has been moving in an upward channel, marked in orange;

→ Since the start of 2024, the price has risen by approximately 12.5%.


What are the gold price forecasts for the end of 2024?

According to Investing.com, Georgette Boele, a senior sustainability economist at ABN Amro, published a cautious forecast on 27 June, predicting a gold price of $2000 per ounce by the end of the year. In her view:

→ Gold prices peaked at the beginning of the year but have since lost momentum.

→ Anticipated easing measures by central banks have not provided the expected support to gold prices.

→ Concerns about physical gold shortages, which were a factor during the COVID crisis, are unfounded in the current market.

On the other hand, longer-term forecasts are optimistic. Analysts at Bank of America believe the gold price could rise to $3000 within 12-18 months. Their arguments include:

→ Lowering Federal Reserve rates could trigger an inflow of funds into ETFs backed by physical gold;

→ The desire to reduce USD holdings in portfolios is likely to lead to increased gold purchases by central banks.

Technical analysis of the XAU/USD chart shows that:

→ After the price reached the upper boundary of the channel twice in the first half of the year (indicated by numbers), the bulls lost momentum;

→ This resulted in a consolidation pattern resembling a triangle (shown by blue lines), within which the gold price fluctuated throughout June.

Note that a similar consolidation was observed at the beginning of 2024, and a bullish breakout led to a sharp rally.

It is possible that a breakout of the current pattern could lead to a trend that significantly influences which gold price forecast—BofA’s bullish or ABN Amro’s bearish—proves more accurate.

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