US GDP data is weak, let's see if US PCE data can turn the tide
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https://www.tradingview.com/x/U5p0iOhp/
On Thursday, as GDP data re-boosted market confidence in rate cuts, the US dollar index retreated from its highest level in more than two weeks, and finally closed down 0.433% at 104.68. U.S. Treasury yields collectively pulled back, with the 10-year Treasury yield eventually closing at 4.556%. The 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, finally closed at 4.933%. The three major U.S. stock indices closed down collectively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.86%, the S&P 500 down 0.6%, and the Nasdaq down 1.08%. Major European stock indices rebounded across the board, with the German DAX index closing up 0.13%, the British FTSE 100 index up 0.59%, and the European Stoxx 50 index up 0.38%.
Risk warning on Friday
At 17:00, the initial annual rate of the eurozone CPI in May and the monthly rate of the eurozone CPI in May.
At 20:30, the annual and monthly rates of the core PCE price index in April in the United States and the monthly rate of personal spending in April in the United States.
Gold prices were supported by a downward revision to the U.S. GDP data for the first quarter, which dragged down the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. The dollar fell after hitting a two-week high in early trading, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. In addition, U.S. Treasury yields fell after data showed that the world's largest economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace in the first quarter, which also provided support for gold.
On the other hand, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have increased, which is also a positive for gold. The market expects the U.S. PCE price index to grow 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding the Fed's target of 2%, which may have an impact on the timing of the Fed's rate cut. At the same time, the number of U.S. home purchase contracts signed in April hit the largest drop in three years, showing consumer concerns about the real estate market, which may also increase the appeal of safe-haven assets.
However, the U.S. labor market remains strong, with initial jobless claims rising, but there are signs of continued fundamental strength in the labor market and will continue to support the economy. This may have a certain constraint on the Fed's decision to cut interest rates, thereby limiting the upside for gold prices.
Gold prices rebounded after hitting a three-week low on Thursday, affected by the downward revision of the U.S. GDP data for the first quarter, which dragged down the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. Today, short-term attention is paid to the support of the 2335 area below, and try to go long on gold after stabilization. At the same time, today's focus will shift to the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index released on Friday, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measurement indicator and may have a greater impact on the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, thereby affecting the trend of gold prices.
On Thursday, as GDP data re-boosted market confidence in rate cuts, the US dollar index retreated from its highest level in more than two weeks, and finally closed down 0.433% at 104.68. U.S. Treasury yields collectively pulled back, with the 10-year Treasury yield eventually closing at 4.556%. The 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, finally closed at 4.933%. The three major U.S. stock indices closed down collectively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.86%, the S&P 500 down 0.6%, and the Nasdaq down 1.08%. Major European stock indices rebounded across the board, with the German DAX index closing up 0.13%, the British FTSE 100 index up 0.59%, and the European Stoxx 50 index up 0.38%.
Risk warning on Friday
At 17:00, the initial annual rate of the eurozone CPI in May and the monthly rate of the eurozone CPI in May.
At 20:30, the annual and monthly rates of the core PCE price index in April in the United States and the monthly rate of personal spending in April in the United States.
Gold prices were supported by a downward revision to the U.S. GDP data for the first quarter, which dragged down the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. The dollar fell after hitting a two-week high in early trading, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. In addition, U.S. Treasury yields fell after data showed that the world's largest economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace in the first quarter, which also provided support for gold.
On the other hand, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have increased, which is also a positive for gold. The market expects the U.S. PCE price index to grow 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding the Fed's target of 2%, which may have an impact on the timing of the Fed's rate cut. At the same time, the number of U.S. home purchase contracts signed in April hit the largest drop in three years, showing consumer concerns about the real estate market, which may also increase the appeal of safe-haven assets.
However, the U.S. labor market remains strong, with initial jobless claims rising, but there are signs of continued fundamental strength in the labor market and will continue to support the economy. This may have a certain constraint on the Fed's decision to cut interest rates, thereby limiting the upside for gold prices.
Gold prices rebounded after hitting a three-week low on Thursday, affected by the downward revision of the U.S. GDP data for the first quarter, which dragged down the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. Today, short-term attention is paid to the support of the 2335 area below, and try to go long on gold after stabilization. At the same time, today's focus will shift to the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index released on Friday, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measurement indicator and may have a greater impact on the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, thereby affecting the trend of gold prices.
Giao dịch đang hoạt động
The PCE data is bullish, and there is a basis for thisGiao dịch đang hoạt động
Gold will definitely rise according to my analysisGiao dịch đang hoạt động
Gold has opened up room to riseGiao dịch đang hoạt động
The time for harvest is getting closerGiao dịch đang hoạt động
The gold daily, weekly and monthly lines are coming to an end. Can the Air Force make a big splash?Giao dịch đang hoạt động
Perfect prediction success, gold PCE data is bullishĐóng lệnh: đạt mục tiêu
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