XAU/USD: Anticipated Downward Momentum for the Next Two Weeks
Overview and Timeframes
This analysis covers XAU/USD (Gold vs US Dollar) with a focus on two timeframes: a 4-hour chart and a 21-minute chart. Both timeframes indicate a bearish outlook for the next two weeks, as the price seems to be completing or approaching a downward Elliott Wave structure. This projection relies on the presence of multiple technical factors such as Elliott Wave theory, Fibonacci retracement levels, and price distribution zones.
Key concepts in this analysis are:
Elliott Wave 5-wave pattern completion.
Harmonic patterns playing out.
Price approaching key support levels.
Important Fibonacci retracement levels suggesting potential reversal points.
4-Hour Time Frame Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, the primary observation revolves around an extended Elliott Wave structure, which is already in a corrective phase. The chart marks the completion of Wave (2) at a significant peak near 2,685.640, and we are now in the process of developing Wave (3) of a broader impulse wave.
Key elements:
Wave Count: The chart tracks the progression of waves, showing the current development of Wave 3 within an overall bearish trend. The corrective move after Wave (2) is unfolding, and the price is expected to extend lower into Wave 5.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Notable Fibonacci retracement levels, such as 0.618 (2,651.914) and 0.5 (2,646.254), mark areas of previous resistance. The price has already touched or approached these levels and failed to break higher, confirming the bearish continuation.
CHOCH and MSB: There is a Change of Character (CHOCH) and a Market Structure Break (MSB), signaling a potential shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish. These are often the first indicators that the current uptrend is failing and a larger corrective wave is in play.
Bearish Target Zones: Lower Fibonacci extension levels, such as 1.618 (2,565.376) and 1.786 (2,555.152), suggest the likely price targets for Wave (3) and Wave (5), respectively. These levels indicate the expected low points during the next two weeks.
Current Weak Low of Range: Price is currently positioned near a weak low of the range (2,624.780) and is anticipated to further break down in subsequent waves.
Retail Stop Loss Levels: Several retail stop-loss levels, around the 2,555.152 zone, highlight liquidity pools where market makers may drive the price lower before reversing.
21-Minute Time Frame Analysis
On the shorter 21-minute chart, a harmonic pattern structure can be seen unfolding, with clear Fibonacci retracement levels and Elliott Wave counts (i, ii, iii, iv, v).
Key elements:
Harmonic and Elliott Wave Structure: This chart highlights the internal wave structure, with the completion of Wave A (lower support near 2,624.780) as a critical turning point. The Wave B retracement could potentially take the price higher, but not beyond the key invalidation point around 2,685.640. The Wave C move is expected to bring prices lower once more.
Fibonacci Confluences: Retracement levels such as 0.707 and 0.595 play a significant role in predicting minor bounces or corrective movements. The rejection of price around 0.595 suggests further downside pressure.
Support and Resistance Levels: The resistance level from the AR Distribution Line at 2,651.914 has been retested multiple times, and the price action suggests it is now acting as a strong resistance. Below, the Support Line marks a key inflection point that aligns with the 2,624.780 level, a critical support zone to watch over the next few days.
Volume and RSI Indicator: While the RSI shows the price may be nearing oversold conditions, it does not indicate an immediate reversal. The volume profile shows increasing activity, which could signify an intensifying downtrend as selling pressure mounts.
Price Projection for the Next Two Weeks
Based on the combined analysis of the 4-hour and 21-minute charts, the following expectations are outlined for XAU/USD:
Wave (3) and Wave (5) Continuation: We anticipate the price to continue its bearish trend, completing Wave (3) at around 2,565.376 and eventually targeting Wave (5) near 2,555.152 over the next two weeks.
Fibonacci Targets: Price is likely to encounter support at the 1.618 and 1.786 Fibonacci levels, where we might see minor retracements or corrective waves. However, the overall trend remains bearish as long as prices stay below 2,685.640 (the invalidation point).
Bearish Sentiment: The market structure favors a bearish continuation, particularly given the failure to break through key resistance levels and the presence of a CHOCH/MSB that confirms the reversal of the previous uptrend.
Price Movement Structure: The overall movement structure suggests lower lows in the near future, with the current Elliott Wave count forecasting a fifth wave decline towards the projected target.
In summary, the next two weeks for XAU/USD are expected to be dominated by bearish pressure as the market continues to correct lower, with potential downside targets around the 2,565 - 2,555 range, based on wave structures and Fibonacci projections. Traders should watch for any invalidation above 2,685 and the completion of the current wave patterns for a possible trend reversal.
This analysis covers XAU/USD (Gold vs US Dollar) with a focus on two timeframes: a 4-hour chart and a 21-minute chart. Both timeframes indicate a bearish outlook for the next two weeks, as the price seems to be completing or approaching a downward Elliott Wave structure. This projection relies on the presence of multiple technical factors such as Elliott Wave theory, Fibonacci retracement levels, and price distribution zones.
Key concepts in this analysis are:
Elliott Wave 5-wave pattern completion.
Harmonic patterns playing out.
Price approaching key support levels.
Important Fibonacci retracement levels suggesting potential reversal points.
4-Hour Time Frame Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, the primary observation revolves around an extended Elliott Wave structure, which is already in a corrective phase. The chart marks the completion of Wave (2) at a significant peak near 2,685.640, and we are now in the process of developing Wave (3) of a broader impulse wave.
Key elements:
Wave Count: The chart tracks the progression of waves, showing the current development of Wave 3 within an overall bearish trend. The corrective move after Wave (2) is unfolding, and the price is expected to extend lower into Wave 5.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Notable Fibonacci retracement levels, such as 0.618 (2,651.914) and 0.5 (2,646.254), mark areas of previous resistance. The price has already touched or approached these levels and failed to break higher, confirming the bearish continuation.
CHOCH and MSB: There is a Change of Character (CHOCH) and a Market Structure Break (MSB), signaling a potential shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish. These are often the first indicators that the current uptrend is failing and a larger corrective wave is in play.
Bearish Target Zones: Lower Fibonacci extension levels, such as 1.618 (2,565.376) and 1.786 (2,555.152), suggest the likely price targets for Wave (3) and Wave (5), respectively. These levels indicate the expected low points during the next two weeks.
Current Weak Low of Range: Price is currently positioned near a weak low of the range (2,624.780) and is anticipated to further break down in subsequent waves.
Retail Stop Loss Levels: Several retail stop-loss levels, around the 2,555.152 zone, highlight liquidity pools where market makers may drive the price lower before reversing.
21-Minute Time Frame Analysis
On the shorter 21-minute chart, a harmonic pattern structure can be seen unfolding, with clear Fibonacci retracement levels and Elliott Wave counts (i, ii, iii, iv, v).
Key elements:
Harmonic and Elliott Wave Structure: This chart highlights the internal wave structure, with the completion of Wave A (lower support near 2,624.780) as a critical turning point. The Wave B retracement could potentially take the price higher, but not beyond the key invalidation point around 2,685.640. The Wave C move is expected to bring prices lower once more.
Fibonacci Confluences: Retracement levels such as 0.707 and 0.595 play a significant role in predicting minor bounces or corrective movements. The rejection of price around 0.595 suggests further downside pressure.
Support and Resistance Levels: The resistance level from the AR Distribution Line at 2,651.914 has been retested multiple times, and the price action suggests it is now acting as a strong resistance. Below, the Support Line marks a key inflection point that aligns with the 2,624.780 level, a critical support zone to watch over the next few days.
Volume and RSI Indicator: While the RSI shows the price may be nearing oversold conditions, it does not indicate an immediate reversal. The volume profile shows increasing activity, which could signify an intensifying downtrend as selling pressure mounts.
Price Projection for the Next Two Weeks
Based on the combined analysis of the 4-hour and 21-minute charts, the following expectations are outlined for XAU/USD:
Wave (3) and Wave (5) Continuation: We anticipate the price to continue its bearish trend, completing Wave (3) at around 2,565.376 and eventually targeting Wave (5) near 2,555.152 over the next two weeks.
Fibonacci Targets: Price is likely to encounter support at the 1.618 and 1.786 Fibonacci levels, where we might see minor retracements or corrective waves. However, the overall trend remains bearish as long as prices stay below 2,685.640 (the invalidation point).
Bearish Sentiment: The market structure favors a bearish continuation, particularly given the failure to break through key resistance levels and the presence of a CHOCH/MSB that confirms the reversal of the previous uptrend.
Price Movement Structure: The overall movement structure suggests lower lows in the near future, with the current Elliott Wave count forecasting a fifth wave decline towards the projected target.
In summary, the next two weeks for XAU/USD are expected to be dominated by bearish pressure as the market continues to correct lower, with potential downside targets around the 2,565 - 2,555 range, based on wave structures and Fibonacci projections. Traders should watch for any invalidation above 2,685 and the completion of the current wave patterns for a possible trend reversal.
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