Gold Trading on Buying pressure due DX taking hits

26 thg 10, 2022

Gold's general commentary: Gold was following so far exactly the September #24 - #28 pattern discussed last Week and was marching towards the #1,633.80 Support zone in addition. Since #1,642.80 broke, it was best to await for the #1,633.80 Support in extension (break of can extend the decline towards #1,622.80 extension, #2-Week Low’s) however sentiment got switched on DX which added huge Buying pressure on Gold, currently testing the Resistance zone. The MACD has already made it’s Bearish Cross on Hourly 4 chart so there are Higher chances to finally break the Support, but the sequence will only be confirmed only if market closes below #1,652.80 Support which now seems far away from current Price-action. If a pullback however occurs towards #1,642.80, I won’t be interested in Buying anymore, unless #1,672.80 breaks and market closes the session above. Gold is indeed giving nothing more than mixed signals, as I will choose not to Trade current variance.


Technical analysis: Not surprisingly, the #1,662.80 - #1,672.80 Daily chart Resistance zone worked again as a rejection point and Gold reached #1,662.80 on one single Hourly 4 chart’s candle, and spot how Price-action got rejected exactly on my Resistance line throughout yesterday's session. Equally sharply, Gold rebounded aswell on Hourly 4 chart’s Support zone sequence. Price-action is indicating also the strong Resistance presence at #1,670’s level. Since DX didn't managed to hold the #110.500 Daily chart’s Support and Bullish Falling Wedge was invalidated, Buying sequence on Gold was be inevitable. I need to point out again that on the Short-term, Gold is still Neutral and still Price-action is expected to pick a side. For Long-term Traders, the trend is still Bearish so a practical suggestion would be to Sell every Top to the Rectangle's Resistance within #40 points. On such pace it is not impossible to close the week on marginal losses (now a mere # +0.20%). The Monthly candle however remains on a # -0.11% and below #1,642.80 Support is a negative close, so practically the Bearish Medium and Long-term trend will not be switched. On the other hand, Gold is Trading well on my predicted values. All Technical indicators point for more Hourly decline and there are no Bull flags on the charts and full scale reversal is not expected before #1,672.80 Resistance zone local Top’s break (and market closing above). I will continue to get Selling signals on any level above the pivot point and current Price-action, as I will not consider any Buying, even though Low’s on DX. Remember, every Gold’s Short-term is a great Selling opportunity with this outlook as DX should be getting stronger (however now struggling to make Bullish comeback) and is Trading on recovery candles. Bond Yields (# -3.17%) are progressively piling Buying pressure on Gold in form of Bearish Gap fill. #1,662.80 - #1,672.80 Resistance zone break (and market closing above) invalidates my pattern.


My position: What constitutes and confirms my Medium and Long-term Bearish stance on Gold is multi-Month Descending Channel on Daily chart (started on March #8), which validates Selling potential even more. Technically, current local High's on Gold wouldn't be tested at all if there was no parallel decline on both DX and Bond Yields, mix which is adding huge Buying pressure on Gold. I will only be interested in Buying Gold if Price-action manages to close the market above #1,672.80 Resistance (potential Target then will be seen Trading at #1,692.80 configuration). As soon as DX finds a Support and starts reversing into new relief rally, Gold will negate all gains made in this #2-session uptrend. All will depend in how DX will fare into coming sessions.