HEADER - This should be better than your average weather forecast.
SUMMARY - This is culmination of everything since series 16.
DETAILS - Links to 20 A-B-C-D are below, as are everything else since 17G. Unless my expectations for new all time high by 5/27 changes, I will post nothing else until then because my entire focus will be on execution. Usually, I say that and still post something. Since these trades take so long to happen, I have to make sure I don't waste my time like I did in March. That's what I mean by I have so little time this coming 3 weeks. Once this gets going, we should have one way move with MUCH LESS 2-WAY VOL THAT HAPPENED LATE FEB TO EARLY MARCH. With all that said, good luck.
MY STRATEGY - Taper longs on 5-11 to 5-13. Theoretical exit is 5/25 at 2100.
SUMMARY - This is culmination of everything since series 16.
DETAILS - Links to 20 A-B-C-D are below, as are everything else since 17G. Unless my expectations for new all time high by 5/27 changes, I will post nothing else until then because my entire focus will be on execution. Usually, I say that and still post something. Since these trades take so long to happen, I have to make sure I don't waste my time like I did in March. That's what I mean by I have so little time this coming 3 weeks. Once this gets going, we should have one way move with MUCH LESS 2-WAY VOL THAT HAPPENED LATE FEB TO EARLY MARCH. With all that said, good luck.
MY STRATEGY - Taper longs on 5-11 to 5-13. Theoretical exit is 5/25 at 2100.
Bình luận:
12:45 PM MONDAY AGAIN
1. concerning the forecast at the top,
2. we've hit first 2 boxes already
3. it should move to 3rd and 4th box solidly
4. I have some concerns whether the 5th box gets hit
5. wheher or not it gets hit, it should move to 6th and 8th box ahead of PPI release on 8:30 AM ET Thursday 5/12
6. the next 8 hours following PPI IS SUPER CRITICAL FOR THIS TRADE
7. I will post some notes about that on 5/12 evening like 10pm ET...
8. this is even later (bc it can still turn down after a strong spike
9. I am looking for strong confirmation before total commitment in 4th entry box
10. bc of leveraging down, that last of 40% of entry is over 50% of the risk
1. concerning the forecast at the top,
2. we've hit first 2 boxes already
3. it should move to 3rd and 4th box solidly
4. I have some concerns whether the 5th box gets hit
5. wheher or not it gets hit, it should move to 6th and 8th box ahead of PPI release on 8:30 AM ET Thursday 5/12
6. the next 8 hours following PPI IS SUPER CRITICAL FOR THIS TRADE
7. I will post some notes about that on 5/12 evening like 10pm ET...
8. this is even later (bc it can still turn down after a strong spike
9. I am looking for strong confirmation before total commitment in 4th entry box
10. bc of leveraging down, that last of 40% of entry is over 50% of the risk
Bình luận:
10:18 PM ET MONDAY
1. it looks like it intends to skip 3rd box and go to 4th
2. if so, 5th should get hit, followed by 6th, 7th and 8th
3. if it reverses down, hit 3rd box first, then go to 4th box,
4. then it will skip 5th box, go to 6th, skip 7th, go to 8th
5. so right now, 1-2-skip3-4-5-6-7-8
1. it looks like it intends to skip 3rd box and go to 4th
2. if so, 5th should get hit, followed by 6th, 7th and 8th
3. if it reverses down, hit 3rd box first, then go to 4th box,
4. then it will skip 5th box, go to 6th, skip 7th, go to 8th
5. so right now, 1-2-skip3-4-5-6-7-8
Bình luận:
6. if it goes 1-2-3-4-skip5-6-skip7-8, then odds of a low under 1820 is substantial
7. how low?, I'm not sure, my guess is 1790
7. how low?, I'm not sure, my guess is 1790
Bình luận:
10:50 PM ET MONDAY
1. not making a new relative low (vs 1849 last week) is not really meaningful here
2. this is because the cap for next 24 hours is 1909 and the odds of that breaking (to the upside) hasn't moved
3. FURTHERMORE, if it did break 1909 and move to 1920 (odds of this is like 5% or less), it would still retest 1850 AGAIN
4. to sum it up, tomorrow is Tuesday 5/10 and...
5. 19A forecasted a relative high for 5/10 that would be sold off HARD
6. this part of the move is more or less the same
7. the only questions are:
a) what is the high before it turns down (roughly 1910) based on latest numbers (which has not moved since the weekend), and
b) what is the following low (my call is 1820, but I am being somewhat wishful)
c) could it be worse (hell yeah it can, not reason in the world it can't go to 1790 on 5/11 or 5/12)
1. not making a new relative low (vs 1849 last week) is not really meaningful here
2. this is because the cap for next 24 hours is 1909 and the odds of that breaking (to the upside) hasn't moved
3. FURTHERMORE, if it did break 1909 and move to 1920 (odds of this is like 5% or less), it would still retest 1850 AGAIN
4. to sum it up, tomorrow is Tuesday 5/10 and...
5. 19A forecasted a relative high for 5/10 that would be sold off HARD
6. this part of the move is more or less the same
7. the only questions are:
a) what is the high before it turns down (roughly 1910) based on latest numbers (which has not moved since the weekend), and
b) what is the following low (my call is 1820, but I am being somewhat wishful)
c) could it be worse (hell yeah it can, not reason in the world it can't go to 1790 on 5/11 or 5/12)
Bình luận:
11:09 PM ET
1. speaking of which, WHAT THEN would be meaningful?
2. HOLDING 1850 ALL THE WAY THROUGH THURSDAY NY CLOSE is meaningful
3. it's 1860.75, and that's 65 hours out
4. regression odds favor 1849 breaking by at least 3:1
5. in my mind, that would seal the deal for 2140 by 5/27
1. speaking of which, WHAT THEN would be meaningful?
2. HOLDING 1850 ALL THE WAY THROUGH THURSDAY NY CLOSE is meaningful
3. it's 1860.75, and that's 65 hours out
4. regression odds favor 1849 breaking by at least 3:1
5. in my mind, that would seal the deal for 2140 by 5/27
Bình luận:
6. to be clear, if 1850 hold for 65 hours, 2140 by end of May is a realistic target
Bình luận:
TYPOS!! - since 10:50 PM, replace 1909-1910 with 1902
Bình luận:
11:21 PM ET... it can also do 1-2-4-3-6-8, which would also be meaningfully more bearish for this week
Bình luận:
12:53 AM ET TUESDAY UPDATE - I am anticipating a shift of curves that's less bearish for next 70 hours:
Bình luận:
FOR CHART ABOVE:
1. this is a "low is in" scenario
2. this is the slower of 2 such possibilities
3. again, my forecast is NEW ALL TIME HIGH BY MAY 27TH
4. so 14 trading days left that is including today, Tuesday
5. hence, be ready and expect an upside surprise
6. I will know more tomorrow night
1. this is a "low is in" scenario
2. this is the slower of 2 such possibilities
3. again, my forecast is NEW ALL TIME HIGH BY MAY 27TH
4. so 14 trading days left that is including today, Tuesday
5. hence, be ready and expect an upside surprise
6. I will know more tomorrow night
Bình luận:
Here is 20F: start building a long position.
Ý tưởng liên quan
12:37 PM ET MONDAY 05/9 AT 1865, FOR CHART ABOVE:
1. 4 numbered boxes are my tapered entries
2. at 10%, 20%, 30% and 40%
3. obviously the riskiest (OTM options in 1 and 2)
4 . and ITM options in 3 and 4
5. if you are trading 1:1, take box 2 and be done with it (at 1820, for a a roughly 280-300 move, 1800 is not a bad stop)
6. if you've read me for some amount of time, I don't but when I think I've got the move, I bet big
7. from a due diligence point of view, this is my most solid work yet in the sense that...
8. this checks out with 5 different regression sets THOROUGHLY