Gold: XAUUSD Break out in close-up

3 thg 6, 2017

Gold XAUUSD Sea-Change - And an each way bet:
Gold has managed to close above the long-term resistance line that has capped every rally since the high in 2011 (this
also marks the high for the CRB index, and since then commodities have traded down and the Dow has traded up.)
This break is significant by the look of it. (See also next upload for close-up). It's managed one close above that line in
6 years, a half-hearted attempt, that closed $3 above the line and was met with a bear engulfing red candle the next day.
Big fail resulting in a $80 decline.
On Monday we either get a big fail: worth following on downside if we see it. This will mean that the Dollar has has
not only held up in London but managed to stage a decent rally. This could happen - anything can - and would mean USD
has fooled probably most TA's by by closing on a new low before reversing higher. The chart doesn't say that should
happen, it says the opposite - but H*t happens. So if you're around when Tokyo opens and you're interested enough check
out how USD is faring and Gold too. Can only say that if Gold does fail tomorrow and you see a red candle or pin bar when
you wake up it will likely be worth following for the next few days.
So that shouldn't happen though, but.... as above. What should happen is the Dollar should get sold off - if not in
Tokyo in London - and Gold should surge. That's what price does when it breaks out, after all (see Amazon, Alphabet,
Nasdaq recently). DXY should fall to 95.10, down 1.7% from here.
Gold looks like it has 1303 written on it, which is just $2 more than 1.7% added to current price at 1279. Eventually - and
obviously providing Monday is a positive day for Gold - it looks as if it will rally further still, to 1334-1341 range and then
higher still in the next wave to the 1366-1375 range.
Whichever way Monday goes is pivotal for XAU - if interested in this trade maybe follow the price action as soon as you get
up - and just follow the trend at that point for the next few days. If long leave stop under the big trend/dividing line. If
short leave stop above the big line.
Monday is a big day for this complex. Either way looks worth following.