Gold update CPI 14.03.23

14 thg 3, 2023

Gold is approaching the reaction area - 50% of a 4H order block, which is also 50% of the weekly rejection.

Gold has very strong bullish momentum and 1969 left major liquidity. Gold was formed very strong bullish double manipulation on weekly time frame. And also rallied, after hawkish FED statement. I would not fight the rally. My bias is bullish.

Macroeconomics
Normally CPI is very easy to be traded, but this time is different. In normal circumstances if CPI show higher inflation, Yields should go up and Gold down and vice versa.

Few days ago SVB collapsed, thats why CPI has no much impact this time. We dont know how FED will react of the recent economical changes and most importantly how other banks will react of the SVB´s failure.

Still the inflation reading probably will affect the market. I believe that we will see almost no changed inflation and Gold will go up. More important reading is the core CPI. We should watch it closely.


Yields



In my opinion Yields will continue down to clear the major sell side liquidity.

Declining Yields = Rallying Gold.


GDX



Few days ago XAUUSD was bullish, but GDX did not moved. Now we see that GDX moved significantly, after SVB collapsed. Meaning for me that Gold rally is confirmed and the banks are buying.


Silver



Silver also broke the bearish channel. I believe that after a retest will continue up.


CPI



This chart is showing us how Gold reacted of the previous data. Last time inflation was higher than expected, still lower than previous, but showed that inflation is turning and may go higher. This sign was bearish for Gold, because of the fear that FED will increase the Rates with more than 25bps. Labor market was also extremely strong. Today the situation is very very different - NFP showed that labor market is cooling down, the collapse of SVB will affect the market more than any other economical data.