Gold shows no apparent signs of stopping the downtrend

15 thg 7, 2022

Gold's general commentary: Gold remains Bearish on Hourly 4 chart’s basis and will continue to be under full Selling domination as long as the Daily chart’s #1,746.80 - #1,756.80 Resistance zone is holding. The Lower Low’s Upper zone is about to break for the first time since #2021 Year and if Gold close a full Daily chart’s candle below #1,700.80, or typically close the Weekly candle (#1W) below #1,772.80 (November #30 Low’s trendline, and rejection on December #15), #1,588.80 Lower Low’s extension is area to monitor next. I will await out for area to be engulfed and then make my move, as it is difficult to speculate where the Fundamental pressure will guide Gold, as fair Technical Price should be around #1,678.80 by now already if there was no Oversold conditions on all charts.


Technical analysis: Technically, I see the potential for an Descending Channel extension on Hourly 1 chart as sustainable, calling for #1,678.80 configuration, as market is Trading on Fundamental catalyst where DX was gaining with every candle, engaging Weekly chart’s parabolic uptrend above the #52-Week High’s. According to my formula, looks like that yesterday’s session sharp takedown was mainly attributed to DX on recovery extension candles (still struggling to make Short-term correction) than the minor decline on Bond Yields as no other asset correlations validated it (nor Usd-Jpy pair or Stock markets). It is possible though that the market is repeating the Technical pullback that it always does after it hits the Daily chart Neutral Rectangle zone following a market bottom (October #8 - #10 and December #6 - #9), and the current Top’s around Resistance cluster. The Daily chart’s Williams% points that Gold is much closer to the Bottom than the Top on the Medium-term but like I said on multiple occasions, the key is the Weekly chart’s (#1W) symmetrical #1,706.80 - #1,700.80 Support zone and market closing below it. As long as mentioned zone holds, Price-action will attract Buyers (Buying the dip) and always push for nearby Resistance test, until one side gets heavily invalidated. Closing the Weekly candle below the Support cluster, is Bearish Medium-term signal (what I am expecting), representing multi-Month Bearish cycle ahead and excellent Medium-term opportunity for Sellers. Bulls will dominate above the Daily chart’s #1,756.80 closing (restoring Bullish Short-term trend). If #1,700.80 fractal breaks, I see many similarities with November #1 - November #3 cycle, where Support break engaged almost #50 point takedown. If #1,700.80 barrier breaks and Gold closes the session below it, Sellers may pursue #1,678.80 and #1,652.80 barrier in succession.


My position: As this is the last Trading session for the week, I will not take any action even though every Buying response is strongly limited. #1,700.80 - #1,698.80 Support cluster break will arise Sellers which may drag the Price-action towards #1,678.80 Lower Low's extension. I will take no action regarding today's session, will monitor the Price-action from sidelines and take an early weekend break / Highly satisfied with my Trading results.


Update regarding increased number of inquiries: Even though I only advise and consult Traders who are part of my paid consulting services, I have been receiving many inquiries regarding wiped-out / liquidated accounts of Traders constantly trying to "Buy the dip". When there is Fundamental trend (such as Inflation, war escalation or DX on recent High's), do not attempt to make Profits against the trend as Fundamental pressure is one of the strongest catalysts regarding all cyclical assets / metals such as Gold. At the moment, DX is Trading on huge gains and Buying every Low on Gold is something which I wouldn't suggest. Remember the Russia / Ukraine war escalation, I have made over #90 point Profit just by Buying Gold on every pressure point / Low's, which means that I only Traded the Fundamentals. Wether one thinks that asset will gain or lose, just listen to Fundamentals (when they occur) and act accordingly.