Gold´s consolidation could morph into a correction
Gold´s consolidation could morph into a correction but the mantra remains to buy the dip
Gold continued its consolidation and has not been able to establish a clear and sustainable trend. It´s been dancing around the falling 3 year downtrend line ($1,247) since mid of February. Last week´s top at $1,262 probably marked the begin of the expected pullback and gold might now roll over until June/July towards its rising 200MA ($1,141). Note that gold moved below its 50MA ($1,133) for the first time since early January. This confirms that the bulls are running out of power which is very typical in spring.
There are currently a couple of super bearish analysts out there and to a certain extent I can comprehend their arguments. Indeed a Head and Shoulders pattern is possible. Also you could argue for a classic ABC-correction pattern. Without a doubt Gold´s CoT-numbers are awful too but as I explained last time we can not approach the CoT-report with bear market standards anymore. The massive physical ETF demand has changed the gold market and during a bull market the commercial short position has reached levels north of 300k contracts many times.
Therefore I definitely don't see Gold crashing below $1,140. My 1st target remains $1,180 - $1,190. This is a zone where we can start buying again and from which Gold already could embark towards $1,325. The second dip has to be bought whenever Gold is reaching its 200MA. I guess we will get one or two chances until July/August to buy into a dip.
Gold continued its consolidation and has not been able to establish a clear and sustainable trend. It´s been dancing around the falling 3 year downtrend line ($1,247) since mid of February. Last week´s top at $1,262 probably marked the begin of the expected pullback and gold might now roll over until June/July towards its rising 200MA ($1,141). Note that gold moved below its 50MA ($1,133) for the first time since early January. This confirms that the bulls are running out of power which is very typical in spring.
There are currently a couple of super bearish analysts out there and to a certain extent I can comprehend their arguments. Indeed a Head and Shoulders pattern is possible. Also you could argue for a classic ABC-correction pattern. Without a doubt Gold´s CoT-numbers are awful too but as I explained last time we can not approach the CoT-report with bear market standards anymore. The massive physical ETF demand has changed the gold market and during a bull market the commercial short position has reached levels north of 300k contracts many times.
Therefore I definitely don't see Gold crashing below $1,140. My 1st target remains $1,180 - $1,190. This is a zone where we can start buying again and from which Gold already could embark towards $1,325. The second dip has to be bought whenever Gold is reaching its 200MA. I guess we will get one or two chances until July/August to buy into a dip.