Analysis on BTC Price Action - Monthly Close

31 thg 5, 2020

With the monthly close tomorrow, BTC really needs a close above $10,200 to remain bullish. If it breaks $10,200 it can push to create a HH, although if it can’t then it looks like a retest of the $7,700 area is more likely before a push higher for another go at breaking this trend line once and for all. Instead of giving one analysis I’ve decided to write down both scenarios….

Bullish Reasons:
• After making a Higher Low in the previous months candle, a Higher High is likely if the uptrend continues
• There is also a possible Bull Flag formed on the daily with the measured move taking price to $14,859
• The Bull Flag becomes a Descending Broadening Wedge with a measured move taking price to $13,507
• If the monthly closes above the Order Block at $9626
Bearish:
• Failing to close above 10k
• Price was rejected at the trend line that was established January 2018
• Lower volume in the last two months
• The weekly looks to be making a Lower High if it doesn’t close above $10,206
• Descending volume on the weekly with an increase price suggesting the trend is weak (or weakening)

Overall, I’m leaning more towards bearish at the moment… Although I am waiting to see how the monthly closes before looking for an opportunity.