cI8DH
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Feb 6k low overlapped chart, working good so far!

BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
4251 38 55
I posted this in my previous idea update if you have been following me.



Price action from Feb 6k low onward is overlapped. I scaled it down both in time and price. This implies that market is weaker compared to that time. Also, we are in a different stage of the market. The first stage started Nov 13 2017 and ended March 30th. Followed by a transitional/reversal symmetrical triangle. See this idea for more details:

It is very likely that we see a totally unique price action from now on.

FYI: I am not a pro chartist. Quite new to this market. Posting ideas to get feedback.

Bình luận: So far this has been the most accurate chart overlay I have drawn. Just wanted to mention that the price action is (open+close+high+low)/4

Bear in mind that BTC might deviate from the pattern at any time. So trade with caution and don't follow the pattern blindly.
Bình luận: Closed my longs at 8400 and went short with a small position. Will close the shorts around 8050 and re-open longs.
Bình luận: Please please don't take my charts seriously. I know almost nothing about TA. These ideas are for getting feedback from you and to learn not to teach.
Bình luận: This chart is still working. I don't believe it myself. It seems a drop is coming. This green box is a historic support area. It should keep it from falling or it will be ugly.
Bình luận: This is going too easy so far. Hope you made some profits. As expected, we dropped again. The black line that was a support line, now it is a resistance line.



Per our magical chart, we should drop one more time. I closed my short position from 8.4k and opened a small long position. Per each 1% drop, I will double the position as far down as 7650.
Bình luận: As you can see in the chart, 8050 is a very strong historical support. It may still break.
Bình luận: We should not drop much more than this for this pattern to stay valid.
Bình luận: My followers doubled since yesterday. Thanks for that.
Please like if you like the chart. It worked so far and I think that is enough for getting a like.

I did not expect the chart to work this far.
Bình luận: Just wanted to remind you that there is a feature in the drawing toolbar called "bars pattern" to copy a previous price action. You can scale it after copying.

https://i.imgur.com/hK5EbLn.png
Bình luận: A drop here would signal the termination of the pattern.
Bình luận: 8050 should hold or we are all doomed!!!
Bình luận: So, the magic chart is now dead. RIP :'(

Hope it was useful when it was alive.
Bình luận: Shorts in Bitfinex increased by about 7% since last drop. We will probably drop 300-400$ and shorts will go up by a few more % points. This is a good opportunity for operators for a short squeeze. It will create a good momentum and it is likely that we revisit 8.4k.

This is just my 2 cents. Don't trade based on it.
Bình luận: Most of the buys were due to short squeeze. Shorts are down by 5%. We are at this very strong resistance again (Fib 61.8%). Let's see if we can break it this time.
Bình luận: Previous resistance (Fib 61.8%) is now acting as a support. The BTC is unable to lift from its local uptrend line. This is a sign of weakness.

I think most people are confused with the current price action. This is totally expected. Bitcoin has entered a new stage after the last weeks symmetrical triangle. As I explained earlier, this price action will be very unique. It's an uncharted territory for BTC since it's ATH. We are close to a very important resistance down trend line. Read my last TA about possible upcoming scenarios.
Bình luận: Here is the link for my latest TA. Please give feedback and like if you like it,

Bình luận: Confidence level: 1%

Just throwing this out for those of you who love overlays.

Bình luận: I thought you might be interested in this chart.

Bình luận: Confidence level: 0.1%

As long as we are above the trendline (blue line), we are good. In case we fall, we might bounce back from the lines in the chart. The pattern is called Adam and Eve double top which has never been spotted in the wild before. So I invented one myself. The one seen in the wild is Eve and Adam double top pattern.

Bình luận: This pitchfork is working really good. BTW, the original overlay chart is now aligned with the current price. TBH, I don't know what to make of that. I advised our whale "friends" to take the price up to at least 9.8k before allowing a pullback to 9.2k establishing this symbolic resistance as a support signaling the end of bear market at least for a while. Let's see if they listen to my advice.

Confidence level: 0.1%
The bear composite is getting smarter. They have removed the stoplosses to avoid short squeezes. Instead they are closing their shorts manually after minor pullbacks.

Bình luận: Confidence level 2%:
It seems that the bull composite has done its job, price is creeping up natuarally without a push. As I said before, breaking 9.5k will take us to 9.8k in no time and even to 10kish. The order book from 9.5k to 10k is very thin on Bitfinex.
Bình luận: So the pitchfork worked accurately again. We hit the top of the green channel and fell to 9187 (above 9177, the broken resistance). 4h candle now (1:20 left to close) is a doji and my mind is also thinking like a doji not knowing which way it will go. After all, these whales don't listen to a newbie's advice. They should have taken the price to at least 9.8k before coming back down. Stupid whales!

If you look at the magical overlay, you can see that it is now again perfectly aligned. I am still not taking it seriously, might just be a coincidence.

My confidence level re these statements: 1%
Some of you are probably trading alts. I think that alts are in phase 3 now. Being distributed at high prices. When BTC enters a correction phase, we will enter phase 4. Alts will correct much more. There they will be re-accumulated. Read my half-baked theory to understand what I mean by phases.

Bình luận: So, we again deviated from the magical overlay as I thought we would. Whales are listening to my advice and taking the price up.

My confidence level re these statements: 0.1%

Confidence level: 0.1%
We broke a major resistance today that signaled the end of bear market for short term. Normally, the price should have jumped couple of hundred points, but it didn't. Bitfinex sell orders that was almost empty from 9500 to 9800 is again full. This I suspect is a distribution phase. These huge buy orders you will see until we reach the next resistance (starting 9.8k) are wash trading. Pullback should not be far away.
Bình luận: Just wanted to correct that order book resistance was 9700 to 9800. So, wash trading should be over now. The rest is a real fight.
Bình luận: Confidence level re these statements: Absolute 0. Please don't take this as a trade advice. I am just speculating.

It's been only 2 hours since I wrote that the pullback is not far. They did a lot of wash trading and distributed some BTC on the way up. They gave up the real fight at 9.7k resistance. I am feeling that phase 4 might just have begun. I am really really not sure about it.

Bình luận: So, it seems that the fight is not over. The market FOMO is strong.Let's see how far this boat gonna sail. This bull rally has a lot of potential.
Bình luận: I hope you guys have liked my recent speculations. Almost all turned out to be true whether out of coincidence or the fact that my tinfoil theory has some truth to it. As I expected, we hit 9.8k and fell back to 9.2k. We had a bounce there but it couldn't hold. This is symbolic for me and it says that we will swing between fear and hope for the coming days. If we retrace more than 38%, I expect that this bull rally will turn into a bull trap. Like previous fractals, we will double top (next top less than 9.7k) and the bear market will resume. If the retracement stays minor (less than 23%), I think it is possible to go higher (around 11K at least).
Bình luận: Please let me know what you think about my posts in the comment. I am a newbie after all and I am trying to learn here from your feedback. So far, I've received quite a lot of positive feedback, many via private messages. Also, some of you gave me useful information for solving this market puzzle. I thank you all for your feedback.

Confidence level re these statements: 2%

There is a huge buy wall on Bitfinex. If we break that wall and drop below 9k, I will be quite sure that the wall is fake.

As I am writing this, price is dropping and if it drops below 9k, it will invalidate what I am trying to convey in this chart.

Bình luận: If we don't drop below 8.7k this chart could be a possible scenario (5% confidence):

Bình luận: So we dropped below 8.7k and the previous fractal is no longer valid. Here is another one. Please let me know if you cannot open it.

 

Ý tưởng liên quan

@khk222 you said two months ago you didn't even know what margin trading was. If that's true, and you're ALREADY this good, you're going to be a master trader by next year! Dude, you're smart and have what it takes. Keep it up!
Phản hồi
cI8DH samiswilf
@samiswilf, thanks bro. All I am saying here are my speculations. Nothing is proven.
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how high do u think btc will go ?
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cI8DH yshashmi37
@yshashmi37, it depends if we enter a correction now or not. If we break below 9177, it's not a good sign at all. Then the high could be limited to 9.4kish we reached a few minutes ago. If we go up to around 10k before correction, then it is very likely that we go to 11.1kish (the black neck line). More than 11.1k I cannot know now.
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@hkh222, I think yshashmi37 is a plant by whales to throw users off. Maybe I'm paranoid, but that's what I think. When this user said to go short, many times shorts got totally wrecked. That's why i think this user is a plant by whales/exchanges.
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samiswilf samiswilf
@hkh222 without shorts to squeeze/liquidate, it costs whales/exchanges much more money to push up the price.
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cI8DH samiswilf
@samiswilf, there aren't much sell orders other than theirs. That's why it's wash trading and distribution phase.
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cI8DH samiswilf
@samiswilf, I can't tell and it would be offensive if I say so. She is following me and I respect her.
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What does "Confidence level: 0.1% " mean?
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cI8DH samiswilf
@samiswilf, lol, it means I am not sure about it. Please don't take this as a trade advice.
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